Introduction: A wealth migration that shakes Wall Street
When ETH broke $4600 on August 13, the servers of global cryptocurrency exchanges almost crashed. This price not only refreshed the two-year high but also silenced all doubters: the Ethereum that was criticized for being 'technologically backward' is surging with an 8.32% daily increase, creating a huge wave of wealth among several ETFs in Hong Kong. More dramatically, just four days earlier, ETH was fluctuating around $4200, and three months ago, its price was only $2800. This market, driven by institutions, developers, and retail investors, is reshaping the underlying logic of cryptocurrencies.


In the middle: Four core engines driving ETH value reconstruction

1. Institutional Frenzy: The double squeeze of ETFs and listed companies

BlackRock's ETH spot ETF (ETHA) attracted $640 million in a single day on August 11, setting a record for daily inflows. This capital siphoning effect is directly reflected on-chain: exchange ETH balances dropped to 8 million, a new low since 2016, while institutional wallet addresses' holdings surged 300% year-on-year. Even crazier, listed companies like BitMine plan to acquire 5% of globally circulating ETH, a strategy of 'clear card buying' that has brought forward ETH's liquidity crisis.

2. Technological revolution: The butterfly effect of the Pectra upgrade

The Pectra upgrade implemented in May has completely changed the game:

  • Layer 2 cost avalanche: Blob data capacity increased to 8.15GB per day, L2 transaction fees decreased by 90%, and net income of Layer 2 networks like Base doubled.

  • Staking mechanism reconstruction: The staking limit for validator nodes increased from 32 to 2048, reducing institutional staking costs by 34%, pushing ETH staking volume to exceed 40 million (over 30% of circulation).

  • Node stress test: Although L2 costs have decreased, the amount of data that nodes need to store surged from 40GB to 44.6GB, which actually strengthens the censorship resistance of decentralized networks.

3. On-chain ecology: The two-way explosion of DeFi and RWA

In July, the total DeFi locked value surpassed $270 billion, an increase of 30% month-on-month, with the number of active wallets for tokenized stocks soaring from 1600 to 90,000. This explosive growth is directly reflected in the ETH burn rate: the average daily burn reached 1200, and the annual inflation rate dropped to 0.5%, lower than Bitcoin's 1.7%. More critically, the scale of RWA (Real World Asset tokenization) on ETH has exceeded $4 billion, with products like BlackRock's BUIDL seamlessly connecting traditional finance with the on-chain world.

4. Regulatory breakthrough: The historic turning point of the CLARITY Act

The moment the U.S. House of Representatives passed the CLARITY Act with 308 votes, the 'identity crisis' of cryptocurrencies was completely resolved. ETH was clearly classified as a commodity, regulated by the CFTC, which means traditional financial giants like JPMorgan can legally enter the market. After the act takes effect, stablecoin issuers like Circle will allocate 6.7% of their reserves to WETH, this institutional binding makes ETH the underlying infrastructure of 'digital dollars.'


Conclusion: The ultimate battlefield of 2025, are you ready?
Key nodes in the next three months:

  • Short term (1-3 months): Whether $4600 can hold depends on the final signing of the CLARITY Act (expected in September) and the node expansion progress of the Pectra upgrade.

  • Medium term (6 months): If ETFs open staking features (annual yield 3%-4%), it is expected to attract over $50 billion in traditional funds.

  • Long term (end of 2025): Experts predict ETH will reach $4308 on average, while institutions like Fundstrat give an aggressive target of $15000.


Three iron rules for investors:

  1. Technical aspect: $4200 is the short-term lifeline; if it breaks, be cautious of a pullback to the $3800 support level.

  2. On-chain signals: Net outflow from exchanges, staking rate (>30%), and DeFi TVL (>250 billion) are key indicators.

  3. Risk hedge: Allocate 10% of SOL and other competitive chain assets to cope with potential technological disruptions.


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This bull market driven by technology, capital, and policy is creating a new class of wealth. When ETH breaks the historical high of $4871, will you be a witness or a participant?
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