SOL trend analysis on August 17, 2025

$SOL

Recent price movements of SOL show volatile consolidation, with intensified market tug-of-war. The following is a trend analysis based on the latest data:

1. Key price levels and short-term trends

- Current price: SOL fluctuates between $185-$195, with short-term support at $185 (recent low); if broken, it may test the $170-$179 area.

- Resistance levels: $200-$210 is a key resistance zone; if broken, it may challenge $220-$230.

- Technical patterns: The 4-hour chart shows an ascending triangle structure; if it stabilizes above $185, it may be brewing a new round of increases.

2. Market sentiment and capital flow

- Institutional interest: Progress related to SOL ETFs (such as the REX-Osprey fund) attracts institutional funds, but the SEC's delayed approval may suppress short-term gains.

- Whale activity: The number of wallets holding 10,000+ SOL has reached a historical high (5,224), showing large funds are accumulating at lows.

- Derivatives data: Recent $30M short liquidations have driven a rebound, but the decline in open contracts reflects cautious short-term traders.

3. On-chain fundamentals and ecosystem development

- Staking and supply: 60M SOL has been staked, and the reduction in circulation may support long-term prices.

- Technical upgrades: The Alpenglow upgrade (Q4 2025) is expected to increase transaction speeds to 10,000 TPS, benefiting ecosystem expansion.

4. External influencing factors

- Macroeconomic policy: The Federal Reserve may lower interest rates in September, which could boost risk assets if implemented.

- Regulatory dynamics: Hong Kong has opened retail crypto trading, which may increase SOL's demand in the Asian market.

5. Operational strategy recommendations

- Short term: If $185 is held, a light long position can be tried with a target of $200; if broken, watch or short to $170.

- Medium to long term: After breaking $210, $250-$360 becomes a potential target, but be wary of the risk of $150 support failing.