1. Breaking the Market Circle: The 'Dual-Driven' Logic Behind ETF Data
Recently, ETH has surged strongly, with the core driving force coming from the explosive growth of spot ETFs: Bitcoin and ETH spot ETF daily trading volume has surpassed $40 billion, a historical peak, with ETH contributing $17 billion—this data not only breaks records but also reflects deep structural changes in the market: after 11 months of silence, funds are pouring in at a '6-week concentration of annual heat' pace.
The support for the market is not a single factor, but a resonance of 'emotion + strength':
- On the emotional side, institutional funds are accelerating their entry, Wall Street's attention on mainstream altcoins has shifted from 'watching' to 'positioning', with ETH becoming the 'preferred asset' for institutional allocation.
- On the value side, the stability of ETH staking returns, ongoing technological upgrades (such as the staking redemption mechanism after the Shanghai upgrade), and the absolute advantages of the DeFi ecosystem (on-chain locked volume, number of applications leading other public chains) constitute the 'fundamental base' of the market.
2. Layered Response: Operation Guide for Different Players on Monday
In market fluctuations, the core of the strategy is to 'match your own risk preference', rather than blindly following trends:
1. Long-term Holders: Anchor Value, Diminish Short-term Volatility
- Positioning Principles: If you recognize the long-term value of the ETH ecosystem (staking economic model, potential for technological iteration), do not let short-term fluctuations disturb you. The maturity of the ecosystem does not happen overnight; frequent changes in positions may instead miss long-term trends.
- Replenishment Window: If there is a pullback to the key support range of $4,165-$3,957 (corresponding to the previous chip concentration area), one can gradually accumulate spot positions, but 30% cash position must be reserved—unexpected black swan events are frequent in the crypto market, and 'having leeway' is a prerequisite for survival.
2. Short-term Traders: Focus on Signals, Strictly Follow Discipline
- Long Position Conditions: If the price stabilizes above $4,380 and trading volume increases simultaneously (confirming the trend), a small position can be followed, aiming for $4,620 (previous resistance level), with a stop loss set at $4,320 (exit on break to avoid holding losses).
- Short Selling Opportunities: If the price rises and then falls below $4,380 (trend support level), a small position can be tried for short selling, targeting around $4,170 (mid-term support), with a stop loss at $4,390 (strict enforcement, no bets on reversals).
3. Under the Craze: Three Major Risk Points to Be Cautious Of
The enthusiasm brought by ETFs is worth noting, but a clear understanding is even more necessary:
- Enthusiasm Can Fade: The sentiment in the crypto market switches very quickly; ETF fund inflows may sharply decrease with macro conditions (such as Federal Reserve policy, fluctuations in US stocks), and FOMO (fear of missing out) chasing highs often marks the starting point for losses.
- Normalized Volatility: A daily price fluctuation of over 5% for ETH is normal; when holding positions, one must plan stop-loss lines in advance, especially for leveraged traders, 'position control + stop-loss discipline' is a lifeline.
- Cognitive Boundaries: Earn money within your understanding—if you lack understanding of the ETH ecosystem and ETF mechanisms, blindly following trends is equivalent to speculation; it’s better to solidify your understanding before entering the market.
The hotter the market, the more we must maintain rationality. Whether it's long-term positioning or short-term speculation, 'not being swayed by emotions' is the core ability to navigate through volatility.