Within just a few hours, there was a sharp drop, with a daily decline of 4.24%, reaching a low of 117,000 USD, with intraday fluctuations nearing 7,000 USD. However, such a short-term dramatic adjustment does not mean the end of the bull market; from multiple dimensions, its long-term value logic is still continuing.
Firstly, the underlying scarcity of Bitcoin is irreplaceable. The fixed total supply of 21 million coins gives it a natural anti-inflation property. Currently, gold accounts for 12.5% of global central bank foreign exchange reserves, while Bitcoin's allocation is still less than 0.1%, indicating a significant future space for institutional entry.
In addition to scarcity, the continuous evolution of the technological ecosystem also lays the foundation for long-term value. Layer two scaling technologies like the Lightning Network have reduced transaction costs by over 90%, and the booming development of DeFi and NFT ecosystems further indirectly enhances Bitcoin's liquidity and application scenarios.
Although there are short-term fluctuations at the regulatory level, the long-term trend towards compliance is clear. The EU (Regulation on Markets in Crypto-Assets) (MiCA) has explicitly classified Bitcoin as a commodity, and while the SEC's review of spot ETFs has suppressed short-term sentiment, ETFs managed by institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity, with over 30 billion USD, have entered the compliance sprint stage, and the door to compliance is opening.
From the pattern of halving cycles, the bull and bear rhythm of Bitcoin has always been clear. Historical data shows that 12-18 months after halving often welcomes a main upward wave—an increase of over 8,000% after the 2012 halving and an increase of 725% after the 2020 halving. After the halving in 2024, its inflation rate has dropped to 0.78% (lower than gold's 1.5%-2%), and based on cycles, the peak of this bull market is expected around October 2025.
On-chain data also reveals positive signals: if the net flow of exchanges continues to be negative (Bitcoin flowing out of exchanges), it often indicates that investors are more inclined to hold long-term; the movements of large whales need more attention, as a single-day sale exceeding 5,000 BTC could trigger short-term panic, but the current market selling pressure has not reached extreme levels.
Policy and institutional trends are also worth looking forward to. The Trump administration has allowed 401(k) pension plans to allocate Bitcoin, and the entry of over 7.3 trillion USD in funds will reshape pricing logic; Harvard's endowment fund increased its holdings of Bitcoin ETFs by 116.7 million USD in the second quarter of 2025, and asset management giants like BlackRock and Vanguard are also continuously increasing their positions, indicating a clear trend of institutional entry.
From a technical perspective, after Bitcoin broke through 100,000 USD in May, it successfully converted that level into strong support, and the MACD indicator's 'golden cross' shows that bullish strength is still dominant. After breaking through 120,000 USD, the Fibonacci extension points to a range of 135,000 - 150,000 USD, with institutions like Citibank and Standard Chartered giving target prices of 135,000 - 200,000 USD by the end of 2025.
The health of the industry ecosystem is also improving. After the halving in 2024, miner income plummeted by 70%, but by July 2025, the average daily income had rebounded to 30 million USD, indicating that the industry is gradually adapting to the new economic model; miner selling volume accounted for only 18% of the daily trading volume, showing confidence in long-term prices. Currently, the government, ETFs, and listed companies collectively hold 6.1 million BTC (accounting for 30.9% of the circulating supply), and the concentration of institutional holdings implies limited downward pressure.
From the perspective of investment returns, a weekly investment of 10 USD in Bitcoin over the past five years has yielded a total return of 202%, significantly outperforming gold (34%) and the S&P 500 (79%). Short-term volatility may be alarming, but the long-term value logic continues.