So far, Bitcoin's market share has dropped from 65% in May to 59% now, indicating that funds are flowing from Bitcoin to the altcoin sector. The total market cap of altcoins has surged by 50% since early July, but as of today, the altcoin season index is only 42, far from the critical value of 75 for an altcoin season explosion. However, I believe this index will grow quickly, just in the third quarter!
Let me explain this altcoin season index. This is a real-time indicator used to determine whether the current cryptocurrency market is in an altcoin-dominant season. The index is based on the performance of the top 100 altcoins relative to Bitcoin over the past 90 days, providing detailed charts and metrics to track market trends and the market cap share of altcoins. You can check this on the CoinMarketCap website (I can't put the link here; Binance warns of risks, not sure why, so I'll leave it in the comments). Currently, the top-ranked is M, followed by PENGU. Have you all benefited from the rise of these two coins?
Coinbase's global M2 money supply index suggests that a new wave of potential liquidity may arrive between the end of the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2025, at which point a large number of retail investors will drive the altcoin season's outbreak.
You can also judge based on the size of the U.S. money market fund. As of August 13 (why this date? Because the data on money market fund size is published by the Investment Company Institute (ICI) every Thursday, and August 13 data is the latest), the size of U.S. money market funds is $7.19 trillion, which is the highest level on record! You can check the size of money market funds here: https://www.ici.org/research/stats/mmf. The size of money market funds and the performance of cryptocurrencies have an inverse relationship. As the interest rate cut approaches, the attractiveness of money market funds is expected to gradually decline, and high-yield altcoins will become more attractive investment targets.
Moreover, with the easing of regulations, altcoins that allow for liquid staking, such as LDO, ENA, and ARB—similar to those that yield more than ETH—will see a subsequent surge!
