#CPIWatch
▶️What to Watch in CPI Today
🧾Headline CPI is projected to rise by 0.2 % monthly and 2.8 % year-over-year, an uptick from June’s 2.7 %
Core CPI—which excludes food and energy—is also expected to hit around 0.3 %, signaling continued inflation pressures
🧾A hotter-than-expected reading could reduce expectations for a Fed rate cut soon—potentially boosting the U.S. dollar and dragging down equity futures
🧾Conversely, a cooler report might spark volatility due to concerns about weakening demand, possibly reigniting rate cut hopes
Markets are already on edge. Futures on the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq are trading cautiously while investors await CPI, with PPI data also due later in the week
▶️What It Means for Futures Traders
🚩Equity Index Futures (e.g., S&P 500, Nasdaq): A higher CPI typically triggers short-selling as markets price in tighter Fed policy; a softer reading could fuel a rebound.
🚩Bond Futures & Rate Futures: Elevated inflation fears may push prices lower and yields higher; a mild surprise might provide relief.
🚩Commodities & FX: Inflation pressure often supports commodities like gold, but a strong dollar on hot CPI could limit upside.
