On August 16, Grayscale submitted an application to the SEC for a Dogecoin spot ETF (code GDOG), planning to list on NYSE Arca. This is the first ETF application in the U.S. based on a meme coin, marking Dogecoin's transition from a community joke to mainstream finance.
Products and Regulation
GDOG only holds Dogecoin, custodied at Coinbase, tracking the CoinDesk Dogecoin Price Index, and uses cash for subscriptions and redemptions, with 10,000 shares per basket. The SEC views meme coins as 'collectibles' rather than securities, which aids in approval, but regulation remains cautious, with a ruling likely in October to November, or as late as 2026.
Market Response
Dogecoin's price has risen by 2%-2.5%, still fluctuating within the $0.15-$0.25 range. Institutions like Bitwise and 21Shares have also shown interest in meme coin ETFs. If GDOG is approved, it will be a milestone for meme culture's integration into mainstream finance, testing the SEC's balance between innovation and investor protection.
Is Dogecoin consolidating or trending weak?
In the past month, Dogecoin has risen by 14%, skyrocketing 130% year-over-year, and is still up 3% this week, outperforming most meme coins. But the current question is: Is the price consolidating or trending weak? The following three signals point to consolidation.
1. Whales are buying the dip
Since August 14, the number of wallets holding ≥1 billion DOGE has increased from 70.84 billion to 71.11 billion, adding 270 million DOGE. When the price hit the support level of $0.21, the whales' accumulation showed confidence in the upside potential, digesting the short-term weakness.
2. Selling pressure of Dogecoin has weakened
The 'coin age' indicator shows that the circulation of old coins has decreased from 429.77 million to 209.72 million, indicating a reduction in selling by long-term holders. The accumulation by whales and the decline in old coin circulation together reflect the market's absorption of low-priced chips, alleviating selling pressure.
3. Dogecoin price: Bullish patterns and key trigger zones
Analyzing DOGE on the 4-hour chart is preferred as it captures short-term price movements more easily than the daily chart (which is slower). Currently, Dogecoin is trading within an ascending triangle, with resistance levels at $0.232, $0.239, and $0.246. Breaking through $0.232 could reignite buyer momentum. The Bull-Bear Power Indicator (BBP) has rebounded from a low, indicating weakened bearish pressure.
Outlook: If the whales continue to accumulate and the selling pressure remains low, the probability of breaking through $0.232 is high. If it falls below $0.216, the short-term bullish momentum may reverse, restarting the downtrend.
