GM, it's the same old routine, the familiar rhythm. It started to decline on Friday, saw a spike on Saturday, and then entered a rebound mode on Sunday night into next week. This repetitive trend has occurred more than once, and the recent plunge can be considered the largest correction since the bull market began.
In the past 24 hours, a total of 107,889 people were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $383 million. Long positions liquidated amounted to $309 million, and short positions liquidated amounted to $73.42 million.
BTC
From the current market perspective, Bitcoin's price is clearly in a downtrend, and technical indicators also suggest market weakness. The combination of the evening star pattern and the death cross of the moving averages forms a strong bearish signal, further exacerbating the downward pressure on the market.
However, the significant shrinkage in trading volume indicates that the downward momentum may be insufficient, and the market may maintain a weak oscillation under low volatility in the short term. The contraction of the Bollinger Bands and the price being between the middle and lower bands indicates low market volatility, which may continue to oscillate in a sluggish range in the short term.
Strategy:
Currently, the support levels to watch are 116400 and 114500, with a resistance level at 119200; at this point, continue to monitor the range of 117500-118000, which has a small volatility suitable for short-term operations within a small space, and can be attempted over the weekend. However, opportunities for large fluctuations are temporarily few, as the bearish momentum at the 1-hour, 2-hour, and 4-hour levels remains strong.
ETH
Recently, whenever Ethereum experiences a pullback, many people begin to predict that the price will drop back to 3000 or 2000, believing the market has peaked. However, reviewing Ethereum's trend, it had previously risen to around 4730, just 170 points away from the historical high, a difference of less than 4%. After four years of consolidation, the market makers have mostly cleared the funds trapped in the previous bull market, clearly preparing for new highs.
The current pullback is merely a shakeout before breaking new highs, and ETH will surely break 4900 to refresh the historical high. Spot holders need not worry about being shaken out; patience is key.
Strategy:
Current support levels to watch are 4250-4300 and 4100, while the pressure level is tentatively set at 4729. Focus on whether 4492 can stabilize and recover, as well as whether the first support level will be lost again; these two key support and resistance levels will determine whether positions can be held.
Next, let's discuss this round of the altcoin season.
1. Characteristics of the altcoin season:
This round of the altcoin season (early 2024 and late November to early December 2025) is relatively limited in scale, contrasting with the prosperity seen in previous bull markets. When Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are consolidating at their tops, the rebound of altcoins may range between 2-3 times, but only for those quality projects with broad consensus, active applications, or governance dividends. Some top altcoins may achieve gains of 3-5 times, or even 10 times, but selection is difficult, and high volatility may hinder decline resistance at the end of the bull market. It is expected that Ethereum will rise to $5000-6000 due to the push from ETFs.
2. Changes in the sentiment index:
In the past, the altcoin market sentiment index of 75 was the starting point for the altcoin season, and this round may be at the peak. When it reaches 75, the altcoin season is nearing its end.
3. Market trend:
The cryptocurrency market is similar to the US stock market, where 1% of projects account for 90% of market value and gains. It's not advisable to chase high prices at the end of a bull market; it is recommended to take profits when available. Retail investors shouldn't expect returns of dozens of times; a 3x gain per wave is already good. The most stable and reliable returns of 5-10 times are found from the end of a bear market to the middle of a bull market.
DOGE
Recently, Dogecoin has been performing unusually well, with a small pullback and steadily holding near strong support. In the upcoming market, there is a 40% chance that Dogecoin will lead the market, while 80% chance is still for Ethereum (ETH). Especially within the Ethereum ecosystem, projects like ENA and LDO are quietly gaining momentum, potentially becoming wealth codes at any moment. If there are no clear targets, these projects themselves might become investment targets, and once they start to rise, it could become uncontrollable.
I have recently invested in the primary market, and the trading performance has been quite good:
I bought $XDOG, investing a market value of 600,000, and it has now risen to nearly 6 million, achieving a 10x return. Then I followed up with $XSHIB but found it to be like a 'Pixiu' (only going in, with poor liquidity). Later, I hesitated when I saw $Xwawa and missed out on a dozens of times increase. Afterward, I bought $feeling, which has now risen over 4 times and has the potential to break historical highs.
To summarize: although I seized the opportunities with $XDOG and $feeling, my decision-making errors with $XSHIB and $Xwawa have prompted some reflection, and I will be more cautious in observing the market moving forward.
