Examine #alpine: Reverse Thinking in the Reconstruction of Risk Premium
Why do I think ALPINE might fall?
1. The technology is overhyped
The official claims said it could handle 500,000 transactions per second (TPS), but now the actual test shows only 120,000 (a significant drop). Similar projects have often halved after launching their mainnet (for example, Aptos dropped from 160,000 to 40,000). The audit of the core component of the crucial sharding technology has been postponed to March next year (originally planned for completion in September this year). The security system has only completed 30% of the inspection (competitors have completed 100% before going live). After the mainnet launch, there is a 30% chance of paralysis.
2. Major institutions are going to dump
By the end of October, 8% of the coins will be unlocked (valued at 1.2 billion based on the current total market value of 15 billion). Another 4% will be unlocked in March next year (valued at 600 million). However, the daily trading volume is only 80 million (not enough to absorb the selling pressure). It will take 15 consecutive days to digest this selling. Early investors' cost was only $0.35, and now it’s $1.02, making a guaranteed threefold profit.
3. Ecosystem is depleting
There is only one development tool, Truffle, that can be used. The neighboring Base chain has 11 toolboxes, and real user growth has nearly stagnated: in July it could still grow by 5%, but only 2% in August. The popular chain game ‘MetaCrusade’ has seen 40% of players leave for other chains.
4. The macro environment is worsening
The project valuation is 120 times the R&D investment (others are only 40 times). The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes have made venture capital hesitant to spend money (industry financing has dropped by 60%). Similar projects have collectively cooled down (new public chain financing has halved and halved again).
Qiongqi's cunning moves
Shorting with 3% of the funds (losing it all wouldn’t hurt). Focus on two signals:
① The speed of official code updates (if they suddenly go into overdrive, withdraw)
② Large deposits in exchanges (a precursor to a dump by the big players). Keep some spot as insurance (to guard against sudden positive spikes).
Currently, the price has inflated the probability of success to 60%, but whether it can survive after going live is only 40% certain. Large institutions are sure to cash out by the end of the year, the technology is not yet solid, and the big investors are pulling out. If you want to play, gamble lightly for pleasure, don’t go all in.
There are no guaranteed answers in the financial market, only deepening understanding and rigorous risk management. I share this perspective to provide a multi-dimensional thinking entry point, hoping to inspire you to engage in more independent analysis and critical thinking.
Please note: This article only shares personal research views and strategy choices and does not constitute any investment advice. Follow Qiongqi to not miss any first-hand news updates!
