Analysis of Key Factors for the ALPINE Project Rational Short Selling

1. Competitive Landscape and Market Positioning

ALPINE, as an automotive mortgage lending protocol, faces pressure from established DeFi projects such as Aave and Compound. Its TVL is only 5% of leading competitors, and borrowing rates are relatively high at 1.5-2%, making it less attractive. If it cannot demonstrate a differentiated advantage, growth potential will be limited.

2. Token Economics and Selling Pressure Risk

In the next 6 months, 12% of tokens will be unlocked, and historical data shows that similar unlocks have led to an average price drop of 23%-35%. Current staking APY significantly exceeds the protocol's actual income, which is unsustainable and may trigger a withdrawal from stakers.

3. On-chain Data Warnings

Cash Outflow: A net outflow of $24 million in the last 30 days, far exceeding the industry average. Bad Debt Ratio: 1.8%, with low collateral liquidation efficiency, increasing systemic risk. User Attrition: Active borrowing addresses decreased by 14% week-over-week, with a retention rate of only 41%.

4. Market and Technical Signals

Price Structure: Broke below key support at $0.47, forming a descending triangle, with short positions accounting for 67%, indicating pessimistic market sentiment. Derivative Data: The Put/Call ratio for options reached 2.1, and 43% of open contracts have strike prices below $0.35, reflecting downward expectations.

5. Short Selling Strategy Recommendations

Spot: Borrow and sell coins, stop loss at 0.52, target at 0.32. Hedge: Buy $0.40 Put options to guard against extreme risks.

Risk Warning: DeFi protocols carry risks such as smart contract vulnerabilities and regulatory changes; positions should be <5%, with strict stop losses.

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