Multiple assets are declining, and market trends are changing rapidly.
XRP is testing the technical level of the 26-day EMA, which may determine whether XRP could experience a deeper pullback or if the recent upward trend can be sustained. Given the current situation, the likelihood of a significant rebound is low, although the 26-day EMA has historically served as a springboard for continuing upward trends. Following a strong rebound earlier this month, XRP's price action has been consolidating.
Since the last local low, the trend line has been sharply rising, but its steep angle suggests limited sustainability. A rapid drop towards the lower support level often occurs because this aggressive slope line fails under selling pressure. If the 26-day moving average fails to hold, the trend line may also be broken, leading to a faster decline. From a broader market perspective, there are currently no significant bullish factors for XRP.
Trading volume continues to decline, and the recent uptrend seems to have lost momentum. Due to a lack of new buying interest, prices face the risk of breaking below the EMA support level, which could attract technical sellers into the market. If XRP falls significantly below this level, the first important support level is near the 50-day EMA at $2.89.
If this level is broken, the next important support level will be $2.70, which played a crucial support role during the consolidation period in July. To reopen the path to recent highs and restore bullish confidence, a significant rebound from the 26-day moving average and a breakout above $3.20 are needed.
Increase in Ethereum's staking
In recent trading days, Ethereum's trading volume has increased by over 300%. With ETH prices nearing $4,600, this surge indicates that both retail and institutional investors remain very active in Ethereum's market activities. The increase in volume may signal an impending turning point for the market and suggest that volatility will further intensify.
From a technical perspective, ETH's Relative Strength Index (RSI) has not reached extreme levels but is slightly above the overbought threshold. Historical data suggests that this index may indicate the market could experience consolidation or a slight pullback before regaining stability. However, considering Ethereum's significant price increase from the $3,000 range a few weeks ago, regardless of the RSI level, Ethereum remains technically elevated.
A strong upward trend has been driving ongoing bullish momentum, with ETH trading well above important moving averages. As of now, the trend structure remains clear, with prices consistently respecting the 26-day moving average as a dynamic support level. However, the increased magnitude of the rise raises the possibility of weakness.
Such overheating conditions often lead to pullbacks, especially when surges in trading volume coincide with profit-taking. If Ethereum retreats, the first important support level (corresponding to recent consolidation levels) is near $4,000. The $3,500 range below this level is more favorable for buyers, who may re-enter the market.
Bitcoin's breakout attempt
Bitcoin's recent price action shows warning signals after failing to break through the resistance level of $121,000. Initially, Bitcoin broke through key resistance levels, appearing to have a bright outlook. However, the failure to maintain momentum led to a steep price drop. Such failed breakouts have usually indicated market weakness in the past, potentially bringing additional downward pressure as traders close their positions.
The significant increase in volume during this decline only amplifies concerns. An increase in volume during price drops typically indicates heightened selling activity, while buying support is insufficient to offset the pressure. This dynamic is more likely to lead to a deeper reversal. Given the current flat position, the 26-day moving average is almost unable to provide directional guidance.
Currently, without a strong angle, it cannot serve as a reliable trend support indicator. The RSI is hovering around the neutral 50 before reaching an oversold state, indicating there are still plenty of opportunities for further declines. If the bearish trend continues, the first important support level (consistent with recent consolidation, near the 50-day moving average) is around $115,000.
The key level of $110,000 has previously served as an important turning point in earlier cycles, and if this level is broken, it will become a focal point. Falling below $110,000 could increase selling pressure, bringing Bitcoin closer to $102,500, which is the 200-day moving average, an important long-term support level historically.
