ETH/BTC historically follows a 4-step pattern ending with a strong rally after a channel pullback.
Current cycle shows Gaussian flip to green and local top, with pullback stage likely next.
Holding above the Gaussian Channel after pullback is key to confirming the bullish continuation.
ETH/BTC has reached a potential local top after a confirmed Gaussian Channel flip from red to green. Historical price patterns indicate a pullback stage could follow, often preceding major rallies in past cycles.
Historical Four-Step Price Pattern
The ETH/BTC 3-day chart has displayed a repeating four-step pattern since 2017 across multiple bull market phases. Each sequence begins with the Gaussian Channel turning from red to green, signalling the start of bullish momentum.
This shift is followed by a local top, a short-term high where price meets resistance before retracing. The third stage is a pullback into the Gaussian Channel, which has historically acted as a retest area before further upside.
The final step in bullish cycles has been a strong rally pushing ETH/BTC to new highs. At cycle tops, the same first three steps occur but lead into a bear market instead of another rally.
Current Cycle Position and Market Signals
CrypFlow (@Crypflow) noted that the latest move has already confirmed the red-to-green flip and is now forming a local top. Based on prior cycles, the next likely development is a pullback toward the Gaussian Channel.
In previous bullish sequences, this stage has preceded the largest rallies of the cycle. Such rallies were observed in the 2019–2020 and 2020–2021 periods, delivering sustained upward momentum.
The differentiating factor between a continuation rally and a cycle peak is whether ETH/BTC can remain above the channel after the pullback.
Price Context for Ethereum and Bitcoin
Ethereum is priced at $4,632.73, marking a 2.23% daily decline but an 18.13% gain over the past week. This reflects strong recent buying despite the short-term pullback.
Bitcoin trades at $118,990, down 2.38% in 24 hours but up 1.90% over seven days, showing more modest weekly growth.
Both assets’ performance influences ETH/BTC movement, with Ethereum’s relative strength during this phase being key to sustaining the pattern. Traders are watching for the pullback stage to confirm whether the setup will follow the historical rally path.
