Everyone’s staring at short-term price action. But the real map is here. 👇

This chart tracks the average cost basis of new Bitcoin holders (blue) with standard deviation bands that historically capture overheating and cooling phases.

Right now:

The STH cost basis sits around $107K.

The +1σ band at $127K is the next major resistance zone.

A decisive breakout above it could open the path to $144K (+2σ), a level where previous cycles often met heavy sell pressure.

The market tends to overextend into these upper bands before correcting.

If $BTC breaks $127K with conviction, the probability of a push toward $144K becomes very real but that’s also where you start seeing serious distribution from newer hands.