When Putin flew to Alaska this time, as soon as he got off the plane, he felt a tightness in his chest and looked up to see a B-2 Spirit bomber sweeping across the sky—probably his heart skipped a beat: "This welcome ceremony is a bit hardcore, American-style 'air military band'?"
🔹 Assessment of the positive impact of a ceasefire on the crypto market
1. Increased risk appetite
The easing of war → Global risk aversion decreases → Funds flowing back from gold and US Treasuries to the stock market and crypto market, with mainstream coins like BTC and ETH benefiting first.
2. Reduced pressure on the dollar
After the easing of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, energy and food prices stabilize → Inflation pressure decreases → Expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve strengthen, leading to a decline in the dollar index → This forms support for liquidity in the crypto market.
3. Capital flowing back to Europe
The European market is the most sensitive to conflicts; after the ceasefire, European capital's risk tolerance increases, and some funds may allocate to digital assets, benefiting Ethereum and the euro stablecoin ecosystem.
4. Decreased risk premium
The war risk premium diminishes, global asset volatility decreases, making it easier for institutions to include cryptocurrencies in their portfolios, promoting compliant ETFs and capital inflows.
5. Strengthened narrative
"Easing of the war → A new round of bullish sentiment in risk assets" will become a market consensus, and the crypto market may become a high-beta asset (a risk market with sharper increases), bringing about emotional rallies.
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⚠️ Points to be cautious about
• If the ceasefire is accompanied by "Ukraine being forced to compromise," it may bring about new geopolitical tensions, which is not necessarily entirely positive.
• Short-term benefits are mainly reflected in market sentiment; long-term effects depend on Federal Reserve policies and market liquidity.
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