Ethereum is currently showing one of its most bullish configurations in months, driven by three key factors: persistent spot buying pressure, rising leveraged capital inflows, and a sharp decline in exchange reserves.
1. Spot Taker CVD – Buy Dominance
The Spot Taker CVD, which tracks the net flow of aggressive buys vs. sells, has been in clear buy-dominant territory for much of June and July. This sustained demand pushed ETH from the $2K range to above $4K, with continued buyer activity even in early August. The trend reflects real accumulation rather than short-term speculation.
2. Open Interest – Leverage Expansion
Open Interest has surged to about $29B, near all-time highs. Rising OI alongside price increases suggests new capital entering the market to ride the bullish momentum. This is a sign of confidence from both institutional and retail traders. However, it also means volatility risk is higher, as sudden sentiment shifts could trigger sharp moves.
3. Exchange Reserve – Supply Decline
ETH reserves on exchanges have fallen to roughly 18.38M ETH, the lowest in over a year. This indicates coins are moving off exchanges—likely into cold storage, staking, or DeFi—reducing liquid supply. In a strong demand environment, this creates a supply squeeze, where less available ETH meets persistent buying.
Why It Matters
It’s rare to see all three factors aligned: demand from spot markets, leverage-supported momentum, and shrinking supply. Together, they form a powerful structural setup that often precedes further upside.
Risks
Key watchpoints include funding rates (to avoid overcrowded longs), potential OI spikes without price gains, and macro shocks.
Outlook
If spot buy dominance and reserve declines continue, ETH could sustain its rally and challenge higher resistance zones in the coming weeks. Any dips may simply act as consolidation before the next leg higher.
Written by XWIN Research Japan
