老韩说币
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Tonight's U.S. July retail sales rose 0.5% month-on-month, slightly below the expected 0.6%. Last month was revised from 0.6% to 0.9%, indicating that consumption remains resilient, but is gradually slowing down.
Out of 13 categories, 9 recorded growth, with auto sales leading all categories, mainly due to expectations of rising tariffs, while spending at restaurants and bars—the only service category in the retail report—saw its largest decline since February.
Meanwhile, tonight's preliminary Michigan University Consumer Confidence Index for August is 58.6, lower than the expected 62, with a one-year inflation expectation of 4.9%, higher than the expected 4.4%, also indicating a stagflation structure.
In the U.S. GDP, manufacturing, real estate investment, and government investment have all significantly declined, while consumption continues to grow, but at a slowing rate.
If the August CPI and PCE continue to rebound due to tariffs, the stagflation that the Federal Reserve is most concerned about will become more apparent, which is unfavorable for U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies, but beneficial for gold and U.S. Treasuries.
Considering liquidity, there is still room for a correction in U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies from August to September!
Out of 13 categories, 9 recorded growth, with auto sales leading all categories, mainly due to expectations of rising tariffs, while spending at restaurants and bars—the only service category in the retail report—saw its largest decline since February.
Meanwhile, tonight's preliminary Michigan University Consumer Confidence Index for August is 58.6, lower than the expected 62, with a one-year inflation expectation of 4.9%, higher than the expected 4.4%, also indicating a stagflation structure.
In the U.S. GDP, manufacturing, real estate investment, and government investment have all significantly declined, while consumption continues to grow, but at a slowing rate.
If the August CPI and PCE continue to rebound due to tariffs, the stagflation that the Federal Reserve is most concerned about will become more apparent, which is unfavorable for U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies, but beneficial for gold and U.S. Treasuries.
Considering liquidity, there is still room for a correction in U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies from August to September!
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