Ethereum (ETH) is just 2% away from its all-time high in 2021. However, selling pressures have already emerged, driving its price down below $4,700. Additionally, a large amount of ETH is waiting to be unstaked in the second half of August, which could increase selling pressure.
Industry experts have differing opinions on how this upcoming wave of ETH will affect the market.
ETH unstaking waitlist hits a four-year high
Staking on Ethereum is vital for the proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus mechanism, which was introduced in 2022 after the merge. To become validators, users must stake at least 32 ETH, helping to secure the network and earn rewards.
However, the unstaking process isn’t always straightforward. After requesting to exit, validators must wait in line. Processing time depends on the number of pending requests.
According to ValidatorQueue data, as of August 15, there were 767,536 ETH—worth over $3.5 billion—in the queue for unstaking, the highest level since May 2021.
However, the market may not need to wait until all ETH in the queue is unstaked to feel the effects. The large volume already impacts investor sentiment.
Samson Mow, CEO of JAN3, believes that negative sentiment could drive stronger selling pressures. He warns that ETH may face a deeper correction, with the ETH/BTC pair potentially falling to 0.03 BTC or even lower.
Mow said, "And there's the pullback. Ethereum still has to drop much further. There’s about $3 billion in ETH currently being unstaked, which is a tedious (by design) process where you have to wait in line first and then withdraw. Once the gates open, I expect ETHUSD to drop significantly."
His concern aligns with common market logic: a sudden increase in supply usually harms prices.
Moreover, ValidatorQueue data shows that ETH waiting to be unstaked is also rising, but currently, it is only about 324,000 ETH—less than half the amount being unstaked.
Historical data supports this concern. On July 26, there were over 743,000 ETH in the unstaking queue. Between July 28 and August 15, the price of ETH fell from above $3,900 to $3,365—down about 14%.
The relationship between the size of the unstaking queue and the price of ETH appears clear.
Can the market absorb over 767,000 ETH about to be unstaked?
Kyle Dopps, a well-known analyst on X, notes that unstaking doesn’t automatically mean mass selling.
He explains in his post that some of the unstaked ETH may be held, moved to decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols for higher yields, or reinvested elsewhere—without adding selling pressure.
Dopps clarified that "this doesn’t automatically mean selling... some could be re-staked, moved to DeFi, or just held. With withdrawals set daily, the line keeps getting longer."
Ethereum has countless market use cases. Large investors, or "whales," often use various DeFi strategies to optimize their portfolios rather than just holding tokens. This perspective helps alleviate concerns, especially as Ethereum stands to benefit from a potential improvement in the staking regulatory environment.
DefiMoon's account, which focuses on DeFi on X, believes that ETF flows could offset the unstaking pressure. Based on its calculations, daily flows from Ethereum ETF funds could absorb most of the unstaked ETH, which could drive prices up.
DefiMoon stated that "if daily ETF flows average $300 million, most of these outflows should be negated, but they should be part of the analysis!".
At the same time, SoSoValue data shows that Ethereum ETF fund flows in the United States last week ranged from $400 million to over $1 billion daily, exceeding DefiMoon's estimates.
There are differing opinions on Ethereum's large unstaking list. Some warn of increased risks of price declines and mass selling, while others highlight the market's ability to absorb these changes through DeFi and ETF flows.
The delay will continue for more than nine more days. By the third week of August, investors may have a clear answer about the impact of this unprecedented event.