Blockstream CEO Adam Back Predicts Bitcoin Cycle Peak Between Late 2027 and Early 2028

Blockstream CEO Adam Back, a prominent figure in the cryptocurrency community and a frequent subject of speculation over whether he could be Bitcoin’s mysterious creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, has shared his latest outlook on Bitcoin’s market cycle.

In a detailed social media post, Back reflected on historical patterns surrounding Bitcoin’s halving cycles and offered a long-term forecast that diverges from some analysts’ shorter-term predictions.

Historical Context: Halving Cycles and Market Peaks

Back reminded followers that the previous Bitcoin halving cycle began in May 2020 and concluded with a cycle peak of $73,700 in March 2024. According to his timeline, the current cycle officially began with the latest halving in April 2024 and is expected to run until March 2028.

Based on historical precedent, he projects that the most likely window for Bitcoin’s next cycle peak will fall between the last quarter of 2027 and the first quarter of 2028.

Alternative Views: The November 2025 Theory

Not all analysts agree with Back’s interpretation. A competing theory suggests that the true peak of the last major cycle was in November 2021, when Bitcoin hit $69,000. Under this view, applying a four-year peak-to-peak pattern would place the next market top in November 2025 — just three months away.

However, Back remains skeptical:

“It doesn’t make sense to me to think that the bull market will end in November 2025, that is, three months from now,” he wrote. “Although there may be intermediate corrections, new all-time highs could be seen in the coming period.”

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