Last night's crypto market once again staged a 'bloody storm'—both Bitcoin and Ethereum fell more than 5%, with some altcoins suffering severe losses, causing prices to return to levels seen months ago.
Many investors are increasingly panicking, believing that the bull market script has come to an end. In fact, this sharp decline resembles a carefully planned psychological battle—main players use volatility to shake off indecisive retail investors and high-leverage funds, lightening the load for the next wave of upward movement.
From a weekly perspective, the overall trend remains healthy. Ethereum has just broken through years of suppression, and the new cycle has just begun. As long as the major trend is not broken, deep pullbacks often present excellent layout windows for the medium to long term. History has proven countless times—when panic spreads, smart money is quietly entering the market.
Market Overview
Bitcoin (BTC): After refreshing its historical high, Bitcoin quickly retreated. Public opinion attributed the reason to U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen's statements on reserves and higher than expected PPI data. However, these macro messages did not alter Bitcoin's long-term structure. The trend remains intact, and the pullback is instead an opportunity to accumulate at lower levels.
Ethereum (ETH): Standard Chartered Bank has raised its year-end target for ETH to $7,500, and the logic is sufficient:
The continuous accumulation by institutions and ETFs has absorbed nearly 4% of the global circulation since June, at a speed twice that of Bitcoin's peak.
The regulation of stablecoins has been implemented, with over half of stablecoin trading occurring on the ETH chain.
Technological upgrades are accelerating, with transaction fees and capital flow continuously feeding back into the ecosystem.
Standard Chartered predicts bolder, with ETH expected to reach $25,000 by 2028. The possibility of hitting new highs in the third quarter of this year is very high.
My personal conservative expectation is above $5,000, with the remainder obtained through swing trading for additional gains, adhering to a robust strategy of 'bearish but not shorting'.
Three Major Signals of Wash Trading Completion
Decline accompanied by shrinking trading volume
Key support has not been breached
Obvious rebound signs have appeared in the technical aspect
Typically, the appearance of these three factors marks the starting point of a new round of price increases. However, the premise is to select the right targets—bull market funds are concentrated in leading projects, while weaker and inferior coins will be marginalized.
Altcoins
Last night's sharp decline in BTC and ETH also dragged down altcoins, which generally fell by 4%-6%. This phase of adjustment actually provides a window to accumulate quality altcoins, as it is much harder to act during a continuous rise at high levels. In the short term, the market may undergo a repair at the hourly level before reorganizing, waiting for a new wave of upward movement.
The current market is still dominated by ETH, although BTC and BNB led the way in reaching new highs, the standout performers are mostly Ethereum ecosystem projects, such as GTC, SKL, Eigen, ARB, ZK, etc., covering infrastructure, DeFi, and Layer 2 tracks. However, compared to ETH, these projects still have a significant gap from their previous highs, with some like ARB still nearly 80% below their previous highs. I remain cautious about the long-term strength of these altcoins, expecting their gap from ETH to possibly widen further.
My strategy is to allocate a maximum of 10% of the position in such altcoins, while core funds remain heavily invested in leading projects. If the expected returns from leading assets are unsatisfactory, consider laying out in coin stocks (assets related to mainstream coin trends but not contracts), which provides opportunities for high volatility to yield Alpha returns while avoiding contract liquidation risks.
This round of decline resembles a healthy reshuffling during a bull market rather than the end of a trend. The bullish structure of BTC and ETH remains solid, with funds concentrating on core assets. Capturing layout opportunities after wash trading and selecting targets with genuine long-term value is key to navigating bull and bear markets.