The conversation will be very, very productive and nothing will change

The story
The beginning of the end? Russia’s President Vladimir Putin will touch down on US soil for the first time in around a decade to meet his American counterpart Donald Trump. The summit in Alaska may bring a halt to hostilities in Russia’s war in Ukraine, which is in its fourth year. However, Trump downplayed the chances of an imminent ceasefire and suggested further encounters are needed.

Why it matters
War and Peace – While Moscow’s forces have been gaining some ground, the domestic economy is under pressure. An end to the war would not only benefit Russia but also Ukraine and the European Union. It would also lower Oil prices, as Russian Crude could flow more easily. Peace would yield more winners than losers, and also hope for a resolution of other global conflicts.

What’s next
Peace in our time? Trump has moved from all but blaming Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of being invaded to heavily criticizing Putin. This week, he delighted European leaders with strong commitments to punish Russia if it doesn’t agree to a truce but also alarmed them by vaguely suggesting territorial concessions from Kyiv. Putin may try offering economic deals and arms collaboration, while probably refraining from ordering his forces to stop. A ceasefire of any sort would provide hope and inspire markets, while ongoing talks would disappoint them.

I want to be hopeful and think there could be an announcement of an upcoming ceasefire. Betting markets are more optimistic than earlier this summer, but only foresee a 35% chance of a truce.$TRUMP