BNB suddenly dropped without warning, crashing from over $860 to around $840, giving the entire crypto market a chill! Many small coins fared worse, crashing along with it.
1. Where is the 'culprit' of last night's crash? Look from both sides!
The news front is tense: There are rumors in the market that just before the crash, news came from the US! Mainly two things:
Regulatory old tune repeats: Another congressman has stated that they will strengthen the scrutiny of major trading platforms, especially around the old issue of 'compliance.' Although not named, Binance, as the parent of BNB, triggers a reflexive panic in the market!
A major institution is suspected of reducing positions: Rumor has it that a keen-sensed hedge fund might be cashing out to cover other holes. When these two pieces of news collide, it's like lighting a match to panic emotions! News is the fuse, specifically triggering those who are uncertain.
2. Technical aspects buried early: You see my chart, before the crash, BNB had already shown signs of fatigue!
The key fortress at $865 has been taken by bears: This position is an important platform support from earlier and a battleground for bulls and bears! Yesterday, it struggled several times without standing firm, which itself indicates that 'the bulls are hesitant.'
Volume-reduced rebounds are traps: The previous attempts to rebound before the crash clearly showed that the volume could not keep up, a typical signal of 'false breakout and baiting the longs.'
Once it breaks 865, it triggers program orders + panic selling: Once this wall of 865 is breached, those machine trades will immediately trigger stop-loss and sell orders, combined with the prevailing panic of 'it's over, it's going to crash,' everyone will stampede to escape, how can it not create a deep pit? The technical weakness is a powder keg, and the news is just a spark.
After the sharp drop, what is the market's response today? Keep a close eye on two positions!
After last night's bloodbath, today's market can be summed up in two words: Weak recovery! Let's look at the chart:
Attempting a rebound, but lacking strength: The price is now struggling around $840, trying to climb up. But brothers! Look at that thick yellow line above! It has become a strong resistance now! Yesterday it was support, now its role has switched, becoming an unbreakable resistance! Want to recover lost ground in a day? Unless a super favorable news comes, otherwise it's just a dream!
Where is the lifeline below? 827! The low point from last night was around 843.81, but the real test is at the lower level of 827.64! If this position is broken with increased volume, then the technical analysts will be completely hopeless, and panic will further spread, targeting below 800!
What’s the indicator situation? Weak!
Trading volume: Huge volume during the crash, but what about the volume during the rebound? Hehe, it's quite small, indicating that there aren't many funds willing to bottom-fish; they are all observing!
MACD: The fast and slow lines have crossed downwards, and the green bars are still there. This indicates that bearish momentum is still being released and has not completely exhausted! Want to see a golden cross reversal? You'll have to wait it out!
Personal view: The main tone is a consolidation at the bottom, and it hinges on whether 827 holds!
Don’t expect BNB to suddenly fly back in the short term! Market sentiment is hurt and needs time to stabilize.
My script goes like this:
Consolidation: The price is very likely to fluctuate within the large range of 827 - 865. If it touches 865, there will be immense pressure, and if it cannot stand firm, it will fall; if it approaches 827, there will be resistance.
Life and death hinges on 827: The support level at 827.64 is the absolute lifeline now! If it can stabilize here, and during the consolidation process, the MACD green bars continue to shorten, the fast and slow lines flatten or even turn upwards, and the rebound starts to gently increase in volume, then that would be a signal of hope for stability and strength. Otherwise, if it effectively breaks below 827, the outlook will be extremely pessimistic!
Today's strategy: If you feel the urge to trade, remember: Do not chase highs! Only buy low! When approaching the 827 area, consider a small position to gamble on a rebound if there are signs of support, aiming for a target of around 850-855, quick in and out! As long as 865 does not have a substantial increase in volume breakthrough, that will be a point to exit and reduce positions! Don’t be greedy! For those without positions, watch more and act less; wait to see the outcome of the 827 defense!
Last night, BNB crashed the market, which is a classic textbook case of 'regulatory wind + technical breakdown' double whammy!
Don’t wait until your contracts are liquidated to remember me! Pay attention to the financial month, next time I'll help you escape the peak 3 seconds early! The scythe at @财月女神 is faster than the market makers! Follow me, and I'll teach you how to counter the market!