August 15th Web3 main task strategy.
I. Economic Data:
Yesterday's pullback was due to the US PPI significantly exceeding expectations, eliminating the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September, leading to a market sentiment decline.
PPI: An inflation indicator that measures the average change in prices received by domestic producers for their sales of goods and services.
Reflects the price changes of producers in raw materials, labor, and other production costs.
July PPI YoY previous value 2.4%, expected 2.5% - actual 3.3%.
July PPI MoM previous value 0% expected 0.2% - actual 0.9%
In short, production costs will rise, which may be passed on to the prices of final consumer goods, leading to a decrease in purchasing power and inflation.
Due to the over-expectation of PPI data, it will affect the market's pricing of the Fed's September rate cut probability, leading to a significant market pullback.
I personally believe the data is not very meaningful; it's just a wave of emotion. The 'smart king' is leading the rate cut faction while Powell's conservative faction is at odds, constantly threatening and mocking Powell, reducing Powell's market influence. The smart king, being a businessman, will ensure that during his term, the stock market and economy flourish, so he will take decisive action using various means to force the Fed to cut rates.
This is your opportunity to buy, the last dip of the bull market!
2. Today, August 15th, US retail sales MoM will be announced at 8:30 PM:
Previous value: 0.6%, expected 0.5%.
This data measures the changes in total sales in the US retail and food service industries, reflecting changes in consumer spending, and is used to assess economic health and consumer confidence.
Higher than the previous value of 0.6% expected, indicating strong consumer demand.
Lower than the previous value of 0.6% expected, indicating weak consumer demand.
Expecting retail sales to meet expectations.
II. Geopolitics
On August 15th, Trump and Putin will meet in Alaska to discuss the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire issue.
(Cat Uncle) KT: Summarizing the following information, based on the following information, the negotiation results may not be ideal.
Zelensky is communicating with EU leaders and Trump via phone to confirm the five major principles of Russia-Ukraine talks, ensuring that the August 15th US-Russia meeting in Alaska will not involve territorial issues, with the priority being a ceasefire.
1. A ceasefire is necessary; a ceasefire must take place before entering the formal negotiation stage.
2. Establish a format for the "trilateral talks"; the talks must occur between the US, Russia, and Ukraine.
3. Provide truly reliable security guarantees; the West needs to provide substantial, feasible security guarantees to Ukraine. This was clearly stated by Trump yesterday, but it has not been implemented into specific matters.
4. Russia must not interfere with Ukraine's European and NATO prospects.
5. Ukraine must participate in any negotiations that determine its fate.
The Russia-Ukraine issue has been ongoing for many years. The failure of negotiations has not had much impact; the market has become desensitized. On the contrary, a successful negotiation would definitely feedback positively to the market, so the impact of this issue on the market is limited.
III. Market Analysis
1. K-Line Chart
BTC pulled back to near the middle Bollinger band line on the 12-hour chart and rebounded.
ETH pulled back to near the middle Bollinger band line on the 4-hour chart and rebounded.
The rebound is characterized by weak trading volume, with prices rebounding significantly. On the supply and demand side, it indicates a weakening supply, meaning there aren't many people panicking and selling, so even with weak buying demand, prices have shown a clear rebound.
Market hot money is seeking safety, possibly waiting for today's US retail sales MoM data to be released.
ETH is stronger than BTC in both price rebound and trading volume.
2. Liquidity Clearance Map
BTC's main clearance is around 120,000 upwards and around 117,000 downwards.
ETH's main clearance is around 4750 upwards and around 4320 downwards. It is worth mentioning that ETH is now close to the high clearance zone.
3. Spot Premium
BTC premium continues to rise from 50-109.
ETH premium around 2-4 has also slightly increased.
The spot premium keeping up is a good sign, indicating healthy spot trends. This pullback is about clearing long leverage. The market's temporary trend is controlled by the spot market, while the futures market is observing and waiting for opportunities to enter.
4. Spot ETF
ETH net inflow on August 14th: 134,700 coins
Net inflow of funds: $640 million
Spot buying performance is strong, with BlackRock inflowing a maximum of 109,400 ETH; it seems spot buyers are not bearish on the market's pullback. This pullback is more about clearing leverage.
BTC net inflow on August 14th: 1,871 coins; only BlackRock had inflows, while Fidelity and Grayscale had outflows or zero.
Net inflow of funds: $231 million.
Spot ETF data performance is weak; this season ETH is still strong, nearly close to 3 times the net fund inflow.
5. CME gap
BTC gap 118,000-119,110 has been filled.
Not mentioning the 90,000 area temporarily unless the bullish trend is completely broken.
The ETH gap 4098-4230 and 2853-2925 is too far, not looking at it for now.
CME gaps are esoteric; the filling rate is 90%, but I don't believe very old gaps will be filled.
The historical gap of URPD has been 100% filled, never missing, with a 90% filling rate for CME gaps.
In summary: The Q3 season is mainly influenced by the monetary policy game affecting market trends; in simple terms, it's the game between Trump and the Fed regarding rate cuts. Q1 and Q2 were mainly about tariff battles, and MD bankrupted me.
Rate cuts lead to liquidity injection, allowing the market to prosper; otherwise, the current speculative expectations will have a particularly large backlash. When expectations fall through, the market will use a black swan event to show you what despair means.
So no matter how high the probability, always set a stop loss, even if the remaining principal is very small, there is still a chance to start over.
The market is never short of myths from 50,000 to 50 million, is it? What is lacking is a calm and brave self.
Courage is the blade that pierces the dark night; research is the whetstone that makes your blade steadier and sharper; stop-loss is the spark of the night, a small spark can start a prairie fire.