Last night's drop kicked the bulls over. Bitcoin and Ethereum plummeted overnight, and the market directly switched to bear control. Several factors include last night's PPI data release and Fed's Daly stating that September is not suitable for interest rate cuts, which scared the market into cutting losses and fleeing. The firmly anticipated interest rate cut hit the market that day. As a result, the market dropped sharply, a typical case of 'the market collapsed before people even arrived.'
However, I actually think this drop is a good opportunity for spot buying in batches, especially for those mainstream coins with good liquidity that haven't had a chance to get in before. As for contracts, I still say this - take a steady approach, first short-term waves, and consider medium to long-term aggressive moves when the market changes.
Market Sentiment
Greed/Fear Index: 59, overall sentiment is relatively neutral with opposing long and short positions.
According to the current BTC liquidation map, the overall market liquidation is dominated by shorts today. Based on the current Bitcoin price around 119000, if the market fluctuates another 2000 USD up or down and rises again to around 121000, it is expected to liquidate about 2.481 billion USD in shorts; conversely, if the market drops to around 117000, it is expected to liquidate about 1.105 billion USD in longs.
According to the current ETH liquidation map, Ethereum's overall long and short strengths are relatively equal today, based on Ethereum around 4650 USD. If it fluctuates 100 USD up or down and rises again to around 4750, it is expected to liquidate about 1.958 billion USD in shorts; conversely, if Ethereum drops to around 4550, it is expected to liquidate about 890 million USD in longs.
ETF Fund Flow (Yesterday)
BTC ETF statistics on August 15, total trading volume of 6.6 billion USD, total net assets of 155.1 billion.
BTC Spot ETF: Net inflow of 230 million USD, except for BlackRock, other institutions like Grayscale and Fidelity are in an outflow state.
ETH Spot ETF: Net inflow of 640 million USD, intersecting with Bitcoin, and Ethereum is recently favored more by institutions.
BlackRock is singularly and consistently buying despite the storm, while ETH here has also seen a slight absorption, feeling like a shift in focus.
Mainstream Analysis
The current market and Ethereum's 4-hour level are still oscillating in a sideways range. Last night's drop was more out of panic induced by news rather than a trend reversal. The release of the PPI data, along with Fed's Daly's comments that September is not suitable for interest rate cuts, directly slapped the market. Bitcoin fell from a high of 124500 to a low of around 117000, with an intraday drop of nearly 8000 points.
My personal judgment:
Spot: Layout in batches, not rushing to fully invest, keep some capital for low buying opportunities.
Contract: Low leverage light position, trading in waves, short-term, steady, no holding positions.
Resistance and Support Levels
BTC: Pay attention to resistance at 120200-120800 as the first and second resistance levels, and support at 117400-116000 as the first and second support levels.
ETH: Pay attention to resistance at around 4730 above and support at 4450 below.
SOL: Pay attention to resistance at 200-206 above and support around 188-180 below.
Harmonious Strategy
BTC: High sell, low buy, small stop loss, small take profit, play in waves.
Buy near 116400, take profit at 118000 / 119000 / 120000, stop loss at 114800.
Short near 120000, take profit at 118500 / 117500 / 116500, stop loss at 120800.
ETH
The volatility is too large; do not place orders, wait, the risk is too high.
SOL: High sell, low buy, small stop loss, small take profit, play in waves.
Buy near 188 -180, take profit at 198 / 205, stop loss at 176.
Short near 198, take profit at 190 /185, stop loss at 206.
Altcoins
Continue holding WCT, also hold STRK, but won't strongly push other coins today. Until mainstream coins stabilize, altcoins, even if they rally, can easily be hit hard. If you’re eager, you can lightly stake on sector leaders and add positions when Bitcoin and Ethereum stabilize.
Summary from Old Vine.
The market's volatility is increasing; now is not the time to be overly aggressive, especially with contracts - light positions, low leverage, quick entries and exits are key to longevity. For spot trading, take advantage of panic to layout in batches but avoid going all in at once. Remember, the market can turn at any time, and when clearing leverage, making mistakes and running away is a thousand times better than holding on stubbornly.#加密市场回调
