Can the altcoins in the wallet recover?
Currently, Bitcoin's dominance remains around 58-60%, and the Altseason index is only in the 30-40 range, with market funds still concentrated in $BTC and a few strong sectors.
From a macro perspective, the fastest structural recovery window for altcoins may appear between late August and mid-September. This wave will first drive several high beta sectors, such as the $ETH ecosystem (ETH, native L2, LST/LRT and re-staking), high-performance L1 ecosystem trading infrastructure, and leading Memes.
Altcoins that can recover either directly benefit from institutional allocation and ETF capital inflow or have strong narratives, quick implementation, and leverage that makes them easier to speculate on.
For a full altcoin season, the market must at least meet three trigger conditions:
$BTC 's dominance must drop below 58% and maintain a downward trend, $ETH ETF must see continuous net inflows, and stablecoin market capitalization must continue to rise in order to potentially bring back a truly significant large altcoin season like in 2021.
Additionally, the biggest opportunity in this round of altcoin season is likely the ETH sector, as it has one more ETF as a capital entry point than other sectors, and LST/LRT & re-staking projects, along with lending, can create secondary and tertiary amplification effects for ETF inflow.
If one can find projects that have both $ETH re-staking returns and involve RWA related concepts, in my eyes, they are the highest multiples targets.
