Entering the Asian trading session on Friday (August 15), Bitcoin rose slightly by 3% to around $119,000, while Ethereum rebounded above $4,600.

Yesterday, Bitcoin dropped more than 3% from its historical high after U.S. inflation exceeded expectations, diminishing hopes for rate cuts, and after the U.S. Treasury indicated it would not expand Bitcoin purchases in its strategic reserves. Following a record surge, as profit-taking pressure increased, ETH fell by 3.3%.

Bessent seems to have backtracked.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent seemed to backtrack on Thursday, stating that the government remains committed to increasing its Bitcoin reserves in a budget-neutral manner.

Earlier that day, Bessent stated that the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve would consist solely of the Bitcoin currently held by the government, valued at $15 billion to $20 billion, without considering new purchase plans.

After hitting a record high of $124,000 overnight, Bitcoin saw a significant drop to $118,000, falling sharply from the record high established just hours earlier.

Bessent's statements on Thursday morning dashed hopes for some Bitcoin supporters—he stated that the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve only includes the $15 billion to $20 billion of Bitcoin already held by the government, with no intention of new purchases.

However, by the end of the day, his remarks seemed to reverse, stating that his department is 'committed to exploring budget-neutral ways to acquire more Bitcoin to expand reserves.' Bessent indicated that these newly acquired Bitcoins would be in addition to those seized by the government, and the seized coins would form the 'basis' of the reserve.

In March of this year, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve, a plan that Bessent has actively advocated. Earlier this month, Bo Hines, chairman of the White House Digital Assets Advisory Committee, resigned; one of the committee's tasks was overseeing the SBR.

Most of Bitcoin's decline that day occurred after the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) report in the U.S.—the data was far stronger than expected, raising doubts about whether inflation could fall enough to allow the Fed to cut rates in September.

Ethereum shows signs of cooling.

In the past week, ETH has risen nearly 16%, and 45% over the past month, which may not be concerning for most traders. After all, the ETH/BTC ratio has broken above the 365-day moving average—this signal has historically often marked the beginning of a sustained outperformance phase for ETH, and the inflow of spot ETF funds further strengthens this trend.

However, the same data also shows early signs of short-term cooling, a point raised in a recent report by Crypto Quant.

ETH's daily inflow to exchanges has surpassed Bitcoin, indicating that some holders are preparing to take profits. The MVRV ratio of ETH relative to BTC has risen from 0.4 in May to 0.8, approaching historically overvalued territory. CryptoQuant warns that in past cycles, this level often precedes a stagnation or correction in ETH's relative strength.

The trading department's view aligns with this.

FlowDesk in France pointed out in a recent report that despite ETH ETF inflows reaching up to $1 billion on Monday, and customers generally buying ETH instead of BTC and SOL, the number of covered call options for ETH expiring in December with strike prices between $7,000 and $8,000 has increased in the ETH options market—indicating that some investors are setting limits on the upside.

QCP in its (AsiaColor) Telegram update placed ETH's rise in the macro context, pointing out that the relatively mild U.S. CPI data, strong expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, and easing geopolitical tensions supported the market, but also reminded that the upcoming Jackson Hole annual meeting speech and subsequent CPI and non-farm data could become turning points in sentiment.

Market maker Enflux added in an interview with Coin Desk that the higher-than-expected PPI data reminds traders that inflation risks remain uneven, and that ETH's strong performance may lead to a consolidation.

Although structural drivers such as ETF demand, institutional participation, and favorable on-chain signals still exist, the market is entering a phase where positions are overly stretched, and macro event risks may test ETH's momentum. CryptoQuant's data indicates that the upward trend remains strong, but there are also clear early signs of profit-taking.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis

Bitcoin's price briefly soared to nearly $124,000, a historical high, but then shorts entered. BTC began to correct and fell below the $122,000 support zone. The price broke below the $121,200 support level and the 100-hour moving average. Additionally, the key upward trend line on the BTC/USD hourly chart (support at $120,000) was broken downward. The currency pair then tested the $117,250 area.

Currently, Bitcoin is consolidating its losses and slightly rebounding, testing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level from the drop between the high of $124,420 and the low of $117,250. Bitcoin is currently trading below $120,000 and the 100-hour simple moving average.

The immediate resistance level for short-term upward movement is around $119,000. The first key resistance level is around $120,000, and the next resistance level could be at $120,500. If the closing price breaks above the $120,500 resistance, the price may rise further. In this case, the price could rise and test the $121,650 resistance level, or retrace to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the drop between $124,420 and $117,250. If it continues to rise, the price could reach $122,200, with the main target potentially being $123,500.

If Bitcoin fails to break through the $120,000 resistance zone, it may initiate a new round of declines. The short-term support level is around $118,000, with the first major support level around $117,250. The next support level is in the $116,500 area. If it falls further, the price may reach the $115,500 support level in the short term. The main support level is at $113,500; once broken, the coin may continue to decline.

Technical Indicators:

Hourly MACD—The MACD is losing momentum in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) **— The RSI for BTC/USD is currently below the 50 level.

Main support level—$117,250, followed by $116,500.

Main resistance level—$120,000, followed by $120,500.