【Matrixport: The US market is entering a new round of liquidity release cycle, and the market is expected to continue until 2026】 According to Jinse Finance, Matrixport released a weekly report stating that the US market is entering a new round of liquidity release cycle, and structural capital support may drive Bitcoin and risky assets to continue rising, with the market expected to last until 2026. The current funding structure, credit environment, and the early stages of past bull markets are quite similar: ample liquidity, improved credit environment, and a shift in policy towards dovishness, with multiple positive factors resonating to drive asset prices upward. Since the fourth quarter of 2018, US money market funds have rapidly expanded in scale, increasing from $3 trillion to $7.4 trillion, setting a historical record, with current annual interest income reaching $320 billion, constituting an important incremental fund flowing into high-yield assets. Meanwhile, corporate buybacks have also noticeably accelerated. Since 2025, the announced buyback amount has reached $984 billion, and the total for the year is expected to exceed $1.1 trillion. Current volatility is at a low level, and these funds will continue to flow into US stocks and boost valuations. The structure of the financial system is further amplifying the impact of liquidity. Since 2008, the Federal Reserve has begun paying interest on reserves to banks, and this amount has reached $3.4 trillion, generating interest of up to $176 billion annually. In the current high-interest-rate environment, this mechanism has made money market funds and commercial banks the main beneficiaries. However, our model shows that the Federal Reserve's pace of interest rate cuts has lagged market expectations for 32 consecutive months. To narrow this gap, approximately 62 basis points of cumulative rate cuts are still needed in the coming months. Credit issuance is warming up. Since April 2025, cumulative increases in US commercial and industrial loans have reached $74 billion, showing early signs of a new round of credit expansion cycle. Since June, credit spreads have continued to narrow, and the financing environment has improved, which historically has been favorable for Bitcoin; this trend has also been preliminarily reflected in Bitcoin's price performance. Our model indicates that inflation will gradually fall to the Federal Reserve's target range of 2%, and volatility is converging, providing more adequate policy space for rate cuts in September. The fiscal side is also injecting liquidity through bond issuance. Since the 'Great Beautiful Law' raised the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, the Treasury has net issued $789 billion in Treasury bonds in less than six weeks. This round of large-scale bond issuance coincides with Bitcoin starting a new upward trend. Historically, during the fiscal expansion cycle led by Trump, Bitcoin prices often strengthened in tandem with Treasury bond issuance.
