SEC 'Project Crypto' speaks tonight: Higher probability of positive news, but must follow the right rhythm

US SEC Chairman will speak about Project Crypto at 8:30 PM tonight. The core of the plan is to modernize securities regulations, enabling the US market to have 'on-chain' capabilities. In terms of direction, positive > negative:

Why it's leaning positive

• Clear compliance path: If it involves the definition of digital asset securities, licensed brokers/ATS on-chain settlement, and custody clearing standards = paving the way for institutions to enter.

• Lower barriers for RWA, ETFs, and broker access, benefiting ETH's main line (L2, LRT/Restaking), RWA (LINK/ONDO, etc.), and SOL (ETF + Asia-Pacific compliance resonance).

• If there is an emphasis on 'technological neutrality, encouraging innovation + risk control', the market usually interprets it positively.

Points to guard against

• If the stance shifts to 'enforcement priority, expanding securities recognition, tightening high-yield/staking', high-beta altcoins and unlicensed derivatives may come under pressure.

My probability judgment

• Net positive 60–65% | Neutral 20–25% | Net negative 10–15%.

Trading rhythm

• Before the event: reduce leverage, set trailing stop-loss; do not chase new highs.

• Event window (±1h): watch the direction of the 'second wave'. If BTC is stable + ETH/SOL lead the rise → slightly increase positions; if BTC.D rises, and altcoins drop together → shift to defense.

This is a key signal for whether 'compliance capital can be scaled on-chain'. Buckle up your positions, use discipline to capture positives, and use stop-losses to shield against surprises, which is more important than betting on a one-way street.