#美国7月PPI年率高于预期

Let me write about the transmission mechanism from PPI to the decline in interest rate expectations, so that everyone can understand the underlying logic instead of being confused.

👊 PPI is an index that measures the price changes of goods and services at the production stage, usually reflecting changes in wholesale or factory prices, that is, at the enterprise level.

Generally speaking, the higher the PPI, the higher the costs for enterprises, which will eventually be passed on to consumers, meaning that CPI will also rise subsequently.

👊 The dual mandate of the Federal Reserve is price stability and full employment, which means keeping the inflation rate around 2%.

When PPI rises, it indicates that enterprise costs are increasing, and the final reflection on products is an increase in prices, naturally leading to higher market inflation.

To avoid this situation, the Federal Reserve will delay interest rate cuts because once rates are cut, it will lower production costs for enterprises and stimulate consumer spending, leading to inflation when market demand exceeds market supply.

Therefore, the Federal Reserve will wait until CPI falls to the ideal level before considering easing monetary policy.

👊 The impact of this on the current market is that stocks, especially in the crypto market, will experience a short-term pullback.

This is because the expectation of rate cuts has failed, and bonds, especially short-term bonds, will maintain high interest rates, attracting a flow of funds.

👊 You can take a look at the recent 24-hour data from the crypto market:

BTC: $62,450 ▼ 2.1% (24 hours)

ETH: $3,310 ▼ 1.8% (24 hours)

Altcoin Index: ▼ 3.5% (24 hours) — SOL, ADA, and MATIC are leading the decline.

DeFi TVL: $65.4 billion ▼ 2.7% (24 hours) — Inflows to Uniswap, Aave, and Curve have decreased.

Liquidity-sensitive subsectors (especially high-beta altcoins and leveraged DeFi protocols) remain most susceptible to further macro-driven sell-offs.