Last night, the crypto market experienced sudden volatility, with Ethereum quickly retracing from a high of $4795 to around $4475, attracting attention from many investors. However, from a technical and capital flow perspective, this retracement may be a short-term adjustment rather than a trend reversal. This article combines the latest data to dissect the current market's core contradictions and provide actionable recommendations.

News: Negative news has been digested, emotions are stabilizing

Yesterday, the US released initial jobless claims data lower than expected, triggering a brief concern in the market regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations, leading to a short-term drop in ETH. However, it is noteworthy that this retracement did not trigger panic selling—the support level of $4475 has not been broken for 3 consecutive hours, indicating that most funds chose to 'stay put' rather than cut losses. Market sentiment is shifting from 'sensitive to negative news' to 'waiting period'; if key price levels can be held steady during the European and American sessions tonight, the rebound probability will further increase.

Technical analysis: Three major signals indicate a trend change is imminent

  1. The 'offensive and defensive battle' of support and resistance
    Currently, ETH is in a range between $4475 and $4795. If $4475 holds, it means negative sentiment has been fully released; if it falls below $4440, be cautious of a deep retracement to $4200. However, from the trading volume perspective, the retracement saw a decrease to 60.3 million coins, indicating that the bearish force has not continued to exert pressure, making the 'bottom line' of $4475 temporarily safe.

  2. Bollinger Bands narrow, trend change window opens
    The upper and lower bands of the Bollinger Bands have narrowed to a range of $4441-$4773, with the middle band at $4607 becoming a dividing line for long and short positions. The price is running close to the middle band, usually indicating that a short-term direction will soon be chosen—either breaking upward through the resistance or testing downward the support. Coupled with the RSI bouncing from the oversold zone to around 45, if matched with increased trading volume, the rebound probability is even higher.

  3. The 'golden combination' of RSI + trading volume
    Currently, the RSI has not entered the overbought zone, indicating that bulls are not overly exuberant, and there is still room for a rebound. However, caution is needed: if the price rebounds to the $4700-$4795 range, and the RSI simultaneously enters the overbought zone without significant volume increase, it may form a 'false breakout', necessitating timely profit-taking.

Specialist says crypto exclusive advice: Two scenarios

Principle: All trading positions ≤ 5%, stop loss ≤ 1.5%, avoid holding onto losing trades!

  1. Long opportunity

    • Trigger condition: 1-hour candlestick closes firmly above $4500.

    • Signal verification: RSI breaks above 50 + trading volume expands to over 80 million coins.

    • Action: Lightly test long positions near $4500, set stop loss at $4440.

    • Targets: First target $4640, second target $4795.

  2. Short opportunity

    • Trigger condition: Price rebounds and stagnates in the $4700-$4795 range.

    • Action: Place short orders near $4750, set stop loss at $4820, target $4500→$4400.

    • Advantage: Risk-reward ratio ≥ 3:1.

Risk reminder: These three points must be remembered

  • Stop loss discipline: Regardless of long or short, if a single loss exceeds 1.5%, exit immediately to avoid 'small losses turning into big losses'.

  • Avoid chasing highs and cutting lows: Do not heavily buy near $4475; if it breaks, take immediate losses; do not blindly chase highs near $4795; wait for a confirmed breakout before following.

  • Whale 'spike' trap: There may be repeated fluctuations around $4475 as a washout, limit orders can be placed at $4440/$4400, but position must be strictly controlled.

Specialist says crypto today's focus on market observation

  • European session: Observe whether it can hold above $4500 and launch a volume attack; if the 1-hour candle closes bullish with increased volume, the rebound probability exceeds 60%.

  • US stock market opening: If US stocks continue to be strong, ETH may face pressure; if US stocks pull back, the crypto market may see capital return.

  • Practical mantra:
    "If negative news hasn't broken the bottom, watch for volume on the rebound; if pressure is unmet, short; if support holds, long; if sideways, wait for direction, moving randomly leads to slaps!"

Currently, ETH is in a 'negative news digestion period + technical trend change window'. Short-term fluctuations are inevitable, but there is no need to panic excessively. Lightly test trades, strictly adhere to stop losses, and patiently wait for direction confirmation are the survival rules in a volatile market. Remember: the market is never short of opportunities; what is lacking is patience and discipline!

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