Can Bitcoin survive the next century? A century-long gamble on trust and subversion.

In 2009, when Satoshi Nakamoto wrote the first line of code for the Bitcoin genesis block, no one could have imagined that this digital string hidden in a geek's computer would stir global finance years later. Today, it is both the "digital gold" on Wall Street institutions' balance sheets and the "virtual currency" talked about by people on the streets; some see it as a blade that subverts central bank hegemony, while others criticize it as a pure bubble game.

But a more fundamental question has surfaced: Can this code, born from the aftermath of the financial crisis, withstand the next century? This is not just about technological iteration, but also a grand experiment concerning human trust systems and global power struggles.

1. Bitcoin's "immortal gene": How has it survived until now?

The fact that Bitcoin has come this far is no coincidence. Supporting it through bull and bear markets is a "survival system" intertwined with technology, demand, and ecology.

The "anti-fragile" nature of blockchain is its most hardcore backing. A distributed network maintained by tens of thousands of global nodes is like an unbreakable net—no central bank can shut it down, and no hacker can destroy it. In 2010, someone used 10,000 Bitcoins to buy two pizzas when it was worth nothing; by 2021, it surged to $60,000, relying on this underlying logic that has operated for 12 years without major issues. Even more impressively, it knows how to "patch things up": the Lightning Network speeds up small payments, and layered technology solves congestion, just like replacing an old engine in an old car while keeping the core structure solid.

Humanity's eternal desire for "anti-inflation" has provided it with the soil for continuous growth. After the pandemic, central banks around the world have been pouring money as if it were water, and the purchasing power of the US dollar and euro has visibly shrunk, while Bitcoin's total supply is forever locked at 21 million coins—this "scarcity" makes it a "lifebuoy" for ordinary people against the depreciation of fiat currency. In countries like Argentina and Turkey, where inflation is high, Bitcoin has even become a form of "underground hard currency". When government credit is shaky, people always look for more reliable anchors, and Bitcoin just happens to meet this demand.

The ecological transformation from "wild child" to "regular army" is even more crucial. Early Bitcoin players had to mine themselves and remember private keys; now, a complete industrial chain has formed, from compliant exchanges like Coinbase to institutional custody platforms like Grayscale, to "coin-hoarding giants" like Tesla and MicroStrategy. When Wall Street funds start including Bitcoin in asset allocation and when El Salvador designates it as legal tender, this once "marginal asset" has quietly infiltrated the capillaries of the mainstream world.

2. The "Sword of Damocles" hanging overhead: What obstacles could end it?

But Bitcoin's Achilles' heel has always been exposed. These hidden dangers under the halo could become stumbling blocks on the century-long road at any time.

The "death race" of technological iteration is the most worrying. Quantum computers are like clouds hanging over our heads—if one day, this "monster" capable of instantly cracking Bitcoin's encryption algorithms really arrives, the entire network's security will collapse. A more realistic threat comes from the "new waves": Ethereum's smart contracts, Solana's high throughput, and Cardano's eco-friendly design are all eating away at Bitcoin's application scenarios. It's like Nokia during the feature phone era; once a new species completes its iteration, the old dominator could be washed up on the beach at any time.

The regulatory "tightening spell" is becoming increasingly strict. When Bitcoin's market value was still in the billions, governments were indifferent; but when it touched the trillion-dollar threshold, it became an unavoidable "trouble". China has fully withdrawn mining operations, the US SEC is scrutinizing exchanges for compliance, and the EU's "Crypto Asset Market Regulation" is filled with restrictions. Most fatal is that central banks around the world are accelerating the research and development of CBDCs (Central Bank Digital Currencies)—when digital yuan and digital dollar become everyday payment tools, Bitcoin's presence as "currency" is likely to be squeezed down to only the role of "investment product".

Its own "genetic defects" also hide risks. The fixed supply design gives it an inherent "deflationary" nature—if it truly becomes a mainstream currency, people will tend to hoard coins rather than consume, potentially blocking economic circulation. Not to mention that the energy consumption of mining is comparable to that of a medium-sized country; as the world calls for "carbon neutrality", this "energy-hungry" model will inevitably collide with environmental red lines. It's like an athlete who runs very fast but has a natural knee injury; how far they can run depends on whether they can endure the pain.

3. Key moves in the century-long chess game: What variables will determine its fate?

The century-long gamble of Bitcoin is actually a struggle of several key variables.

Whether technology can overcome the "quantum barrier" is the first life-and-death line. Current encryption algorithms cannot withstand future quantum computers, and developers are racing against time to research "post-quantum signatures"—if they can complete the upgrade before quantum computers become practical, they can avoid disaster; otherwise, the entire network's trust foundation will collapse in an instant.

Whether global regulation will head towards "ban" or "tame" is crucial. If China, the US, and Europe suddenly join forces to completely ban it, Bitcoin may retreat to the dark web; if countries classify it as "commodity assets" and manage it under regulations (like the current US), it may instead thrive under a compliant framework. The biggest possibility is "gray box regulation": allowing transactions but strictly controlling money laundering, recognizing its value but refusing it to become a currency—this kind of "half-push, half-allow" may allow it to survive longer in the cracks.

Whether humanity's demand for "decentralization" will disappear is the ultimate answer. The essence of Bitcoin is a rebellion against "centralized power"—when people trust banks and governments, it may just be an investment product; but once the financial system experiences another crisis like 2008, and once fiat currency credit collapses again, it could instantly revert to being that "subversive blade". As long as there is abuse of power and inflationary plunder in human society, Bitcoin will have its survival soil.

Epilogue: It may not succeed as "currency", but it could succeed as "gold".

Looking back a hundred years later, Bitcoin may not necessarily become the "money" we spend daily, but it will likely persist in some form—just like gold, which has transitioned from currency to asset, yet has never truly disappeared.

Its value may not lie in replacing anyone, but in providing an "alternative option": when centralized systems fail, when fiat currency credit collapses, and when cross-border transfers are choked, there is always a decentralized network running silently.

This century-long experiment ultimately tests not the code, but humanity's eternal quest for "trust"—do we ultimately want to trust the government or trust mathematics? Do we prefer to rely on central banks or rely on consensus?

Bitcoin, however, is merely the most rebellious and persistent participant in this exploration.

Disclaimer: The content described in this article is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Investors should rationally view cryptocurrency investments based on their own risk tolerance and investment goals, and should not blindly follow trends.