In the past 24 hours, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization has remained almost static, as a strong buying wave quickly gave way to a subdued trading atmosphere.
This lull occurs right after Bitcoin reached a new historical peak, surpassing 124,000 USD, while sentiment towards Ethereum remains heated, accompanied by predictions that the price could reach 5,000 USD.
Nevertheless, the market is expected to explode again soon, as over 6.2 billion USD in options contracts related to Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP will simultaneously expire next Friday.
Bitcoin price adjusts as over 5 billion USD in BTC options contracts are about to expire
According to data from the cryptocurrency derivatives exchange Deribit, over 41,000 Bitcoin (BTC) options contracts with a notional value of 5.06 billion USD will expire on August 15. At the time of writing, the put-call ratio is at 0.97, reflecting an increasing bearish sentiment among derivatives traders, despite BTC recently setting a new all-time high.
The 'max pain' level – the price point that causes the most damage to option holders – is determined at 118,000 USD, slightly lower than the current market price of 118,350 USD. Selling pressure has pushed the Bitcoin price close to this threshold, and market makers alongside option sellers may continue to adjust the price downward.
In the past 24 hours, the volume of put options is lower than call options, with a put-call ratio of only 0.53, indicating that traders are betting more on a bullish scenario.
Data from Glassnode shows that the percentage of BTC supply in profit has risen to 99% as prices hit a new high. Before the adjustment in July, this index remained at 95% and had never dropped below the average +1 standard deviation (around 92%). This indicates that investors are still adhering to the 'buy on dips' strategy, holding onto unrealized gains, thereby reinforcing market sentiment amid increasing volatility.
On the other hand, Lookonchain reports that whales and institutions have begun to take profits. One wallet (0xcaC1) linked to Galaxy Digital purchased BTC, ETH, HYPE, PUMP, and FARTCOIN with a total value of 125 million USD in the spot market, while also opening short positions in BTC, ETH, DOGE, PUMP, FARTCOIN, and Sonic to hedge risks. This move indicates a mixed sentiment, with a high likelihood that the buy-sell strategy will be flexibly adjusted according to market fluctuations.
Ethereum faces the risk of falling to 4,000 USD
The cryptocurrency market is eagerly watching every price movement of Ethereum, waiting for this cryptocurrency to conquer new highs and break through the psychological threshold of 5,000 USD – a signal expected to kickstart 'altcoin season'. However, factors such as the expiration timing of options contracts, CME Gap, along with predictions from analyst Ali Martinez reveal the possibility that ETH could fall below 4,000 USD.
On the Deribit exchange, around 275,000 ETH options contracts, with a notional value of nearly 1.26 billion USD, are set to expire. The put-call ratio is at 1.03, reflecting a negative sentiment as sell orders (puts) slightly outnumber buy orders (calls). The 'max pain' level – the price point that causes significant losses for the majority of traders – is determined at 4,000 USD, increasing the risk of adjustment as ETH is currently trading around 4,529 USD.
At the same time, 'whales' continue to silently offload or open short positions whenever the price approaches the previous peak – an area considered strong resistance due to the concentration of large sell orders waiting to be matched. Data from Whale Alert shows that market maker Cumberland just transferred 15,129 ETH, worth 71.5 million USD, to Coinbase International for sale.
XRP is under pressure from profit-taking by whales
Next Friday, 2,514 XRP options contracts with a total notional value of over 7.81 million USD will expire. The put/call ratio at 0.55 indicates that the bulls still dominate the market.
The 'max pain' level is determined at 3.20 USD, implying that XRP still has room for adjustment. At the time of writing, selling pressure has begun to increase as 'whales' and institutions are simultaneously offloading their holdings.
According to analysts, the upward trend can still be maintained if XRP holds above the important support levels at 3.12 USD and 2.90 USD. Meanwhile, large traders seem to remain calm in the face of the ETF XRP prospect alongside positive developments from the Ripple – SEC lawsuit.
However, the latest data shows that the flow of money from 'whale' wallets for XRP has turned negative, reflecting an acceleration in capital withdrawal from large wallets. If this trend does not reverse, the price of XRP may continue to face pressure.
Whale Alert also recorded more than 110 million USD in XRP transferred to the Coinbase exchange in just a few hours recently, indicating that 'whales' are still actively liquidating their holdings.