Next week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will outline the Federal Reserve’s “policy framework” — the same institution that:
* Printed trillions post-2008 & post-2020
* Fueled record inflation 🛢️🍞
* Then slammed the brakes with rapid rate hikes 📈
🧐 What’s Really Going On?
This speech could be more than just PR. The Fed is under pressure from: 1️⃣ Slowing job growth → could push for rate cuts. 2️⃣ Political heat in an election year → expect softer rhetoric to calm markets. 3️⃣ Global de-dollarization trends → may push the Fed to defend USD dominance.
🌍 Global Market Impact
* 🟢Stocks → A “dovish” Powell (hinting cuts) could spark risk-on rally 📈, especially in tech & growth stocks.
* 🟢Bonds → Yields could drop if markets see a shift toward easing.
* 🟢Gold & Commodities → Bullish if Powell signals more money-printing.
₿ Crypto Angle
* 🔸Dovish Fed = weaker dollar, stronger BTC & ETH 🚀
* 🔸Liquidity boost could push crypto market cap to new highs this year.
* 🔸But — if Powell stays hawkish, expect short-term volatility before any upside.
️ 🚨Key Crypto Levels (for reaction trades)
* BTC: Support $118.5K–$119.5K; Breakout $122.8K → $125.5K → $128K; Invalidation < $117.9K (daily close).
* ETH: Support $4,35x–$4,40x; Breakout $4,78x → $5,28x; Invalidation < $4,30x (weekly close).
Signal tells:
* Dovish = yields ↓, DXY ↓, NQ futures ↑, BTC 15m volume spike + funding flips → chase.
* Hawkish = yields ↑, DXY ↑, BTC stalls at resistance, wick rejections → fade strength, wait for reclaim.
🧠 Risk Controls (non-negotiable)
* Risk 1–2% per idea; use hard stops.
* Scale in/out—no hero entries into the speech; react, don’t predict.
* Watch basis/funding, BTC.D (dominance) for alt timing.
* If DXY > key breakout and UST 10Y pops, cut crypto beta.
📌 MY POV;
* 🔺Short-term traders: Watch Powell’s tone — “dovish” = risk-on pump, “hawkish” = pullback.
* 🔺Long-term holders: Macro liquidity cycles are turning in crypto’s favor — dips are accumulation zones.
* 🔺Everyone: Fed policy still drives everything — stocks, bonds, crypto, commodities.
#Powell #FOMCForecast #FederalReserve #Macro #Markets #RateCuts #Bitcoin #BTC #Ethereum #ETH #Crypto #CryptoTrading #RiskOn #DXY #Bonds #Inflation #StockMarket #Altcoins