Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is set to deliver a significant speech on August 22 at 10 PM (Beijing time) at the Kansas City Fed's annual meeting in Jackson Hole. This timing is quite delicate as the U.S. economy is at a critical turning point: on one side, tariff policies are pushing up inflation, while on the other, the job market is clearly cooling, making the situation quite complex.

Now, Wall Street traders are betting that the Federal Reserve is likely to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut next month. This expectation has made the market particularly attentive to Powell's speech, hoping to catch subtle hints about policy direction from his words. Interestingly, President Trump has recently been clamoring for a rate cut, and it is said that he is already looking for the next Federal Reserve Chair candidate—after all, Powell's term is set to expire in May next year.

To be honest, there is quite a bit of pressure for this speech. Powell needs to find a balance between inflationary pressures and slowing economic growth, while also dealing with political pressure from the White House. I've noticed that the recently released employment data is indeed not looking good, and with the impact of trade friction, these could become key points in his speech. However, based on his past style, he is likely to play it safe and not make any definitive statements.

Everyone is now guessing whether he will hint at the direction of interest rates to come. After all, the September monetary policy meeting is just around the corner. Moreover, considering that there may be a change in leadership next year, this speech could very well become one of the most important speeches of his term. I've heard that many analysts are already prepared to stay up late to watch the live broadcast, as even a casual remark could trigger significant market volatility.