Pantera's prediction on Bitcoin in the bear market hits the price for 2025, silencing skeptics
Dan Morehead from Pantera accurately predicted the price of Bitcoin on August 11, 2025, made in November 2022 when BTC was nearing its low.
Pantera Capital's adherence to the Bitcoin halving cycle allowed it to predict the price of Bitcoin with surprising accuracy in 2022, highlighting how the asset's supply schedule can influence valuations, even as skepticism about cycles grows.
In November of that year, Pantera published a price chart that traced the Bitcoin halving rallies
BTC
101,436 €
and showed declining returns after each four-year epoch. Considering the typical time between market lows and post-halving rallies, the firm projected that Bitcoin would reach $117,482 by August 11, 2025.
On August 11, Bitcoin closed above $119,000, according to Coin Metrics data cited by CNBC.
Amid a flurry of Bitcoin price predictions, Pantera's stood out for its remarkable accuracy. At the time of its original forecast, Bitcoin was heading toward a cycle low below $16,000, a level it reached on November 21, 2022, according to Bitbo.
Bitcoin is now trading near $120,000, an increase of over 660% from its 2022 low.
The rally underscores the predictive strength of Bitcoin's four-year price cycles, which closely align with its halving events and generally follow a pattern of post-halving rally, cycle peak, correction, and accumulation.
Analysts like Bob Loukas also apply cycle theory to chart Bitcoin's highs and lows. Loukas correctly identified the start of a new four-year cycle in January 2023, less than two months after Bitcoin bottomed out.
