Analyzing macro trends is common, trading macro trends is rare.

Simply look at the Jinshi data, indicating bullish or bearish as the logic for opening positions.

The deeper trading event contract is the expectation, which I can see from my recent trade of making tens of thousands of dollars betting on CPI at 4278, there is no hindsight.

This is about lines, and there cannot be a basic logic of surfaces. After selling 9 $BTC, I calmly reviewed and thought about the logical aspects of the trade.

What is needed is the expectation of interest rate cuts, not the cuts themselves.

Is it important to have non-farm payrolls, unemployment rates, and the Federal Reserve changing governors?

Not important, everything is for creating the expectation of interest rate cuts, not to force you to cut rates. Just like my July trade during the FOMC live stream of Powell's speech, firmly believing that the trade is about the expectation of interest rate cuts.

Is the purpose of the interest rate cut really due to the data?

I don't think so. When the operator changed from Musk to Bessent, the basic logic changed.

Bessent said this will bring the U.S. back to the prosperity of the 90s.

The prosperity of the 90s = the rise of the Internet + capital inflow into the U.S., which drove a ten-year bull market in U.S. stocks.

The Internet is a story, like the current AI and crypto.

Where does the capital that promotes inflow into the U.S. come from?

Japan's recession + the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

The dollar tide in the interest rate cut cycle will inevitably dissolve capital and draw it into the U.S.

So who will be dissolved this time?

Japan is just a blood bag; I believe it is the European Union.

What is the basis? The U.S.-Russia negotiations from the Ukraine war to today, and the interests are significant enough.

Is Trump really unreliable? What is the essence of taco trading?

Many people think Trump is neurotic, repeatedly engaging in taco trading. The essence of taco trading is to force the flow of funds.

The flow of funds = benefiting from bullishness and hedging against bearishness.

These have caused liquidity; otherwise, before the purpose of interest rate cuts is achieved, these are the methods to maintain U.S. stocks and assets.

Will the credit of the dollar be lost? Where is the baseline for Trump's unreliability?

Compared to achieving the purpose of interest rate cuts and harvesting effects, the current credit overdraw is nothing.

Because

It has become: The President of the United States during the historical transition period - Trump.

Failed: Bessent misled the country.

Not much difference: The art of volatility trading and the rise of the Trump family's capital.

This article is brain-burning, watch with caution.