Family, today the Bitcoin market really feels like it has taken a roller coaster ride. On August 14, it just hit a new high of $124,500, and before we could savor the joy, it adjusted to $117,400. Such a rhythm can easily make one's heart race. Brother Chen brings you the latest market analysis in the early morning.

Let's first look at the technical side: the daily line has closed with gains for 7 consecutive days, and the moving averages are also showing a bullish arrangement, which is a positive signal; however, on the 4-hour chart, MACD has shown a top divergence, and the RSI for BTC and ETH has reached 84 and 78 respectively, indicating an overbought zone. The volume-price correlation also appears slightly weak, and these details deserve our attention.

Now let's talk about policy and the capital situation: the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in September has reached 94.3%. Against the backdrop of a weakening dollar, the willingness for capital to flow into the cryptocurrency market is increasing, which is a strong support; BlackRock's BTC/ETH ETF saw a net inflow of over $1 billion in a single day, along with news that 401(k) pensions may allocate to crypto assets, the potential additional $400 billion is even more exciting. However, there are also several signals to pay attention to: on-chain, 29,206 long-held Bitcoins have been transferred (approximately $1.7 billion). Although this may not necessarily be a sell-off, such movements are worth observing; on the ETH side, 1,632 validator nodes left the network in a single day, the staking track may come under temporary pressure, and we should not overlook this.

Finally, let me share Brother Chen's operational thoughts: consider positioning long orders around $117,500-$118,000, with the initial target at $119,000. Once it stabilizes, we can look at $120,500; if everything goes smoothly, there is also a chance for $122,000. Of course, specific operations still need to combine with one’s own situation. In market fluctuations, maintaining a calm mindset is the most important. Let's take it step by step and focus on risk control! ~#btc