US stocks are adjusting before the market opens, $BTC $ETH are also falling in response, currently hitting the daily support level. After more than three months of continuous rise, a correction was inevitable. I felt a correction was due a few days ago and mentioned that I had reduced my positions in total by three layers. Even though Ethereum has been soaring lately, I have remained inactive!
This is not to say that I am particularly amazing; I would also question my original judgment when Ethereum hits new highs. But in the end, I choose to trust myself. In the trading process, one needs the results of the market to validate their judgments. If correct, it can bring confidence for future trades, making them more decisive; it won’t affect execution power.
Those who understand the technology know that K-line analysis is not absolute; it is merely a matter of probability. For the past two days, Ethereum's movement has left many experts confused. From a technical perspective, a correction is expected, but in a bull market, divergences are common. One cannot predict in which divergence the downturn will occur;
Some big players opened short positions on Ethereum a few days ago and have suffered significant losses in the past two days. Does that mean their skills are lacking? Did they make the wrong judgment?
No, those who become big players through trading have all walked through rivers of blood. Their skills are undoubtedly excellent, and their logic and judgment abilities are certainly top-notch. However, one cannot rely too heavily on K-line techniques in trading;
After all, it is 70% about the capital side, and K-line is at most 30%. With both Ethereum and Bitcoin hitting new highs, altcoins are taking the opportunity to correct, which is a negative signal. The overall market sentiment and funds are not keeping up. How long can Bitcoin and Ethereum's solo performance last?
In my judgment, this wave of correction should reach the daily trend line position, around $ETH 4100; $BTC around $116,000; but it definitely won't be a one-step process. It will oscillate 2-3 times in the range from the recent low to the previous high before finally reaching this position.
As for my three layers of positions, I will only be ready to add to them once we get to this position. If my judgment is wrong, then I will take it as a profit-taking opportunity.
