Reaching $340,000 in this cycle is a "great challenge" for Bitcoin, but over the past five years, BTC has already won the macro asset return game, research shows.
Key points:
Bitcoin will exceed the gains of the previous cycle for the first time if it reaches $340,000 in this bull market.
Although it is a “great challenge,” such a feat would place BTC as the second most valuable asset in the world by market value.
BTC has already stood out among macro assets over the last five years.
it will make history if its price triples before the end of the current bull cycle.
In a post on X on Monday, macro trader and investor Jason Pizzino questioned whether BTC/USD could surpass the gains of the previous cycle, which were nearly 2,100%.
Bitcoin at $340,000 in this cycle: A “great challenge”
Bitcoin has already risen 700% from the bear market low of $15,600 in 2022, but these gains are still relatively modest by historical standards.
In percentage terms, BTC's price action still has a long way to go to match even the previous bull market.
Between 2019 and 2021, BTC/USD recorded maximum gains of 2,089%. To repeat this feat, according to Pizzino, would be a “great challenge” and the price would need to reach a significant $340,000.
“If Bitcoin reaches $340,000 in this cycle, it will be the first time in its 16-year history that it will have a higher return than in the previous cycle. It’s a big challenge, but many are wondering if it’s possible,” he wrote.
“This would represent a market value of $6.7 trillion, less than one-third of the market value of gold, which is approximately $23 trillion, and would place BTC in second place as the most valuable asset in the world, behind gold.”
Bitcoin is already among the top five macro assets by market value in the world in July 2025.
Bitcoin “remains in a category of its own”
In other analyses, Pizzino noted a growing positive correlation between Bitcoin and another class of macro assets.
The 18-year real estate cycle, according to him, is starting to align with Bitcoin's lifespan.
“Bitcoin and the 18-year cycle are walking hand in hand in their first full cycle together,” he summarized, calling the correlation an “extraordinary love story.”
In terms of gold, BTC reached its current all-time highs at the end of 2024, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
BTC/XAU weekly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
A subsequent rally in gold caused BTC/XAU to drop 40% before recovering, with 1 BTC now worth about 36 ounces.
As Bitcoin JAN3 Financial observes, the financial services division of Bitcoin adoption company JAN3, the long-term outlook favors Bitcoin returns.
“In the last 5 years, Bitcoin has easily outperformed all major asset classes, with an impressive CAGR of 58.2%,” he confirmed on Monday, referring to the compound annual growth rate.
“The closest competitor, QQQ, had 16.28%, followed by SPY with 13.68% and gold (GLD) with 10.49%. Bitcoin remains in a category of its own.
