Bitcoin (BTC) — The Hinge That Moves All Risk
Price: $119,500.01 | 24h: -0.77%
Market Cap: $2.37T | 24h Volume: $102.16B
BTC remains the market’s gravity well. Pullbacks are being absorbed above prior breakout zones, keeping the macro uptrend intact (price well above long-term moving averages). Momentum cooled from recent highs—healthy after aggressive runs. On-chain cohorts still show long-term holders distributing into strength while ETFs and corporates (per commentary from Michael Saylor and macro analysts like Lyn Alden) continue to frame BTC as digital monetary collateral rather than a tech trade. Derivatives positioning is mixed; wicks near round numbers ($120k / $115k) hint at stop-hunt liquidity behavior.
Levels: Support: $115k–$117k; Resistance: $122k–$125k, then $130k.
Bias: Uptrend, momentum cooling; volatility pockets near resistance.
Projection:
Base case (60%): Range-build $115k–$125k before trend continuation.
Bull case (25%): Break and hold >$125k opens $130k–$135k.
Risk case (15%): Macro scare or funding unwind tags $111k–$113k 200-EMA zone.
Strategic reflection: BTC’s dominance dictates alt beta. Track ETF net flows, funding, and basis for tells on next leg.
Will BTC’s range reset fuel the next leg or delay altseason again?
