Ethereum (ETH) — Utility Premium Under a Stress Test
Price: $4,602.65 | 24h: -2.27%
Market Cap: $557.07B | 24h Volume: $64.85B
ETH underperforms BTC on red days—typical when risk de-levers. Yet the trend backdrop is supported by Layer-2 throughput and the long arc of the rollup-centric roadmap that Vitalik Buterin keeps emphasizing. The ETH/BTC pair remains the key tell: rotation back to ETH usually precedes broader alt strength. Technically, ETH is holding above the prior breakout area; momentum has cooled but structure remains constructive.
Levels: Support: $4,450–$4,500; Resistance: $4,850–$5,000 (psych), then ATH supply.
Bias: Bull trend, mild relative weakness vs. BTC today.
Projection:
Base case (55%): Coil between $4.5k–$5k while gas normalizes and L2 fees compress.
Bull case (30%): Strong L2/user metrics + positive ETF/fund headlines punch through $5k.
Risk case (15%): Lose $4.45k => retest $4.2k liquidity pocket.
Strategic reflection: Watch ETH/BTC, gas trends, and L2 active users. Those three drive the “utility premium.”
Is ETH’s utility bid strong enough to force a decisive move above $5k?
