After years of trading cryptocurrencies, I finally understand: Misjudging the cycle is more fatal than misjudging the direction!
My 'Three-Cycle Survival Method' has saved me countless times.
When I first entered the industry, I only focused on the 15-minute candlestick chart, thinking that my quick reactions could earn me quick money. As a result, when a major market trend reversed, I didn’t even have time to stop-loss and was directly educated by the market to the point of questioning my life.
Later, an experienced mentor told me: 'If you only look at one cycle, it's like trying to find a forest while touching a single leaf.'
I then began to learn about multi-cycle interactions—judging trends, finding positions, and seizing opportunities from large to small cycles. Since then, I have avoided numerous false breakouts and have also captured several significant uptrends that doubled in value.
Today, I share this 'Three-Cycle Survival Method' with you, not to show off my skills, but to help you pay less in 'tuition fees'.
Without further ado, let's get straight to the point.
Step 1: Use the 4-hour candlestick chart to determine the direction.
It serves as the market's compass, filtering out short-term noise.
Uptrend: Highs and lows are consistently rising, and pullbacks are opportunities to enter.
Downtrend: Highs and lows are continuously declining, and rebounds are often traps.
Sideways movement: Fluctuating within a range, frequent trading only incurs transaction fees.
Motto: Go with the trend; going against it is asking for trouble.
Step 2: Use the 1-hour candlestick chart to find regions.
Once the direction is clear, use the 1-hour chart to identify support and resistance.
Support level: Trend lines, moving averages, previous lows; consider entering when the price approaches.
Resistance level: Previous highs and key pressure zones forming a top pattern signals profit-taking or reduction of positions.
Step 3: Use the 15-minute candlestick chart to seize opportunities.
Not responsible for trend judgment, only for entry and exit points.
Look for engulfing patterns, bottom divergences, golden crosses, etc., and confirm increased trading volume.
Low-volume breakouts are often false; treat them with caution.
Multi-Cycle Principle
4-hour determines direction → 1-hour finds regions → 15-minute waits for signals.
If there are conflicting cycle directions, decisively observe.
Operations in small cycles must set stop-losses.
All three elements: trend, position, and timing are indispensable.
Multi-cycle interaction is not about looking fancy, but about adding another layer of confirmation in a fast-paced market to reduce impulses.
Remember: The market is not afraid of you being slow; it fears you being blind.