Bitcoin and XRP are on the verge of setting new price records. Last summer saw both cryptocurrencies grow significantly, leading to a wave of optimistic forecasts from analysts. However, as we enter August – a month that is usually 'unpleasant' for the crypto market – the question arises: Should we buy Bitcoin or XRP?

The 'Bad August Effect' of Bitcoin

Looking back at history, August has not been a lucky time for Bitcoin.

  • In 2024: Bitcoin fell 9% in August.

  • In 2023: Bitcoin fell 11% in August.

  • In 2022: Bitcoin fell by up to 14% in August.

Statistics show that Bitcoin's average return in August since its inception is -0.23%, while the median return is even more negative at -8%. This suggests that if history repeats itself, Bitcoin is likely to adjust this month.

Of course, this statistical data is based only on 16 years of Bitcoin's existence – not a large sample size – but enough to keep investors cautious. The common pattern is 'brilliant July, gloomy August' for BTC.

Can XRP 'Escape' the Influence of Bitcoin?

An interesting question is: Can XRP decouple from the general trend of Bitcoin?

Last summer, XRP experienced a strong breakout, nearing the $4 mark, while Bitcoin remained 'stuck' below $120,000. This is contrary to the usual rule, where BTC typically leads the market's upward/downward trends.

According to data from DeFiLlama, the correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and XRP over the past 12 months is 0.88 – a very high level, indicating that these two cryptocurrencies almost always move in the same direction.

This means: If Bitcoin declines in August, XRP will also struggle to hold its value unless there is a clear 'decoupling'. Otherwise, both could drop together, making buying at this time risky.

Long-Term Perspective: Bitcoin Still Dominates

If you are a long-term investor, focusing only on one month's volatility is unreasonable. Over a time frame of 3 – 5 – 10 years, Bitcoin still outperforms due to stable demand from institutions.

2025 witnessed a strong wave of Bitcoin purchases:

  • Listed companies are increasing their BTC holdings.

  • The governments of some countries are also including Bitcoin in their reserves.

  • Pension funds may buy Bitcoin following President Donald Trump's new decree.

Meanwhile, XRP, despite having practical applications and interest from some financial institutions, still cannot compare in scale to Bitcoin. There are no signs that XRP will become a cornerstone asset in retirement portfolios or national financial strategies. Bitcoin clearly has long-term strategic value, while XRP remains more speculative at this time.

Conclusion

Considering August, both Bitcoin and XRP carry the risk of depreciation – especially if BTC continues the 'negative August' cycle as history suggests. However, looking further ahead, Bitcoin is a safer and more sustainable choice due to the increasing participation of institutional investors and governments.

Recommended strategy: Monitor August's developments, wait for pullbacks to buy Bitcoin at a good price, rather than rushing to buy at high levels.