Recently, ETH surged to $4788, only about 3% away from its 2021 high, driven clearly by the market's high expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September (with a probability of 95%). However, this 'perfect pricing' carries significant risks; if the Federal Reserve abandons the rate cut due to rebounding inflation, geopolitical risks, or other unforeseen factors, the market could face a sharp correction, potentially even triggering a liquidity panic. In the short term, the continuous large net inflows into Ethereum ETFs (up to $1.01 billion in a single day), coupled with strong institutional demand, have led to a bullish sentiment. However, I believe that we are currently in a typical event-driven market, where the price increase mainly discounts the benefits of rate cuts and liquidity easing. If the Federal Reserve follows through with the rate cut in September, ETH is expected to accelerate its challenge for a historical high, and combined with BTC, target $150,000 to $200,000, where doubling in price would not be a luxury; but if expectations fall through, the backlash from leverage and sentiment could be very swift. Therefore, in the short term, one should be cautious of high volatility at elevated levels, manage positions, and use event outcomes as signals, while in the medium to long term, continue to monitor the pace of institutional entry and the macro liquidity environment.