I. Policy Games Intensify Market Volatility
The Trump administration continues its crypto-friendly policies, incorporating Bitcoin into the "national strategic reserve," pushing the price to break through $94,000. However, the SEC held four regulatory roundtable meetings from April to June, signaling a shift from "enforcement" to "cooperative regulation." At the beginning of April, Trump's tariff policy triggered a single-day drop of over $4,000 in Bitcoin, with a total liquidation of $500 million across the network, as concerns over trade frictions continued to ferment.
II. Institutional Funds Accelerate Deployment
BlackRock launched an expanded Bitcoin ETP in Europe, and Harvard University held $117 million in BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF in the second quarter, with the holding value surpassing that of Alphabet, Google's parent company, for the first time. Analysts point out that the role of institutions is "just starting," while retail investors still dominate the current upward trend.
III. Price Hits New Highs and Linkage Effects
In August, Bitcoin broke through $124,000, setting a new historical high, while spot gold rose to $3,374/ounce, indicating a warming of global risk appetite. Ethereum climbed above $4,200, with a total market capitalization surpassing $500 billion, leading the entire crypto market to rise.
IV. Future Outlook and Risks
Citi predicts that Bitcoin could reach $135,000 by the end of 2025, driven by factors including demand for U.S. ETFs, increased adoption rates, and improvements in the macro environment. However, regulatory uncertainty (such as the implementation of the SEC framework), leverage risks, and policy interventions (like the launch of the USD1 stablecoin) remain major concerns
