Author: Biteye Core Contributor viee
Editor: Biteye Core Contributor Denise
ETH has rebounded from the low point in April and is currently above the $4,500 mark. If 2024 is the beginning of a bull market ignited by the Bitcoin ETF, then 2025 is likely to be Ethereum's turn to shine. This article uses six valuation methods to analyze whether ETH can hit the $10,000 mark!
01. ETH/BTC ratio
First, we will make a relative valuation comparison between ETH and BTC.
The ETH/BTC ratio is actually very stable in the long run, but the current ratio is only 0.0372, which is at a historical lower position in the past 5 years, indicating the current ETH may be 'undervalued'.
Based on the average ETH/BTC ratio of the past five years of 0.0518, assuming BTC remains around $120,000, the corresponding ETH price would be $6,214. If we reference the previous bull market's ETH/BTC ratio of 0.06-0.08, still assuming BTC remains around $120,000, the corresponding ETH price would be $7,200-9,600.
02. Ethereum ETF and institutional holdings
With the surge in ETH prices, significant off-market funds are flooding into the Ethereum ETF. Many overlook the actual impact of the Ethereum ETF and institutional buying, which is not just a sentiment boost but also a massive buying force.
According to @SoSovalueCrypto data, the Ethereum spot ETF has reached a new historical high. The net inflow on August 11 at Eastern Time was $1.019 billion, and the current total net asset value of the Ethereum spot ETF is $25.712 billion. The holding amount has reached approximately 6 million ETH, accounting for 4.96% of the current circulating supply of ETH, compared to the ETF percentage of BTC at 6.48%, indicating room for growth. In addition, 70 Ethereum reserve entities hold approximately 3.49 million ETH, accounting for 2.89% of the circulating supply of ETH. BMNR has publicly stated its goal to ultimately hold 5% of the global circulating supply of Ethereum. After deducting the staked locked-up amount of 36.17 million, the free circulating supply is only about 7.51 million.
The following price calculations are based on a simple assumption: the proportion of the free circulating supply that decreases will proportionally raise the price of each unit.
In other words, new price = current price × (target free circulating supply / current free circulating supply)
If we package the ETF and institutional reserves as a whole, they currently hold 7.85% of the total supply. Assuming this proportion increases to 10% in the future, and the staking locked-in ratio remains relatively stable, the free circulating supply will shrink to about 7.252 million, corresponding to a mechanical price increase to about $4,647; if it rises to 15%, it will push to about $5,070; if it increases to 20%, it will be close to $6,000.
This does not even consider the amplification effect from the demand side, so the actual increase may be even higher. Furthermore, the ETF and institutional incremental funds usually take some time to complete their settlements, which means the price center of ETH will be raised long-term and steadily, rather than experiencing a short-term spike.
03. Metcalfe's Law
Many people discuss ETH valuation while focusing on price fluctuations and hot narratives, but overlook the long-term support of on-chain activity for network value. Metcalfe's Law states that the value of a network is proportional to the square of its active user count; applied to Ethereum, this means network value ≈ k × (daily active address count)².
Simply put, 'the more users, the more valuable the network'; a square growth in user numbers will bring exponential growth in market value.
According to BitInfoCharts data, as of August 13, 2025, the number of daily active addresses (DAA) on the Ethereum mainnet was approximately 971,486, the current price of ETH is about $4,500, the total circulating supply is approximately 120.7 million, and the market cap is about $54.31 billion. Plugging into the formula gives us the current coefficient k ≈ 0.576 (USD/address²).
With this k, different price scenarios under various activity levels can be calculated:
If DAA increases to 1 million, the price will be about $4,768 (+6%)
If DAA increases to 1.1 million, the price will be about $5,769 (+28.2%)
If optimistic to 1.3 million (close to 90% of historical highs), the price will be about $8,058 (+79.1%)
This calculation assumes that the amount staked and the circulating supply remain relatively stable. The increase in activity will directly magnify the network value, thereby raising the price of each ETH. Unlike the ETF and institutional buying, the Metcalfe method reflects the endogenous growth of on-chain usage and economic activity, which does not depend on external capital inflows but is based on the compounding of network effects.
Note that once the activity level resonates with the capital front—on-chain transactions increase, fees rise, and burning amounts warm up, combined with the ETF and institutional chip contraction effect, the price of ETH will be driven by both supply contraction and network expansion. The speed of increase may far exceed predictions based on a single factor.
04. NVT model
NVT essentially acts like a 'crypto version of PE'; given a reasonable NVT multiple (referencing historical ranges) and future daily transfer amounts, we can reverse-calculate market cap and price.
NVT = Market cap (USD) / Daily on-chain transfer amount (USD), the calculation gives us the current NVT = 518 B / 14 B = 37
Historically, ETH's NVT has been roughly in the range of 60–110, and currently, it is at a historical lower position. Assuming the NVT multiple remains in a reasonable range of 60/80/90/100/110 within 6 to 12 months; considering the daily on-chain transfer amounts (USD) will fluctuate in the future between $7 B and $14 B per day.
6-month scenario
Conservative: NVT 70, daily transactions $7 B → market cap ≈ $490 B → price ≈ $4,059
Benchmark: NVT 80, daily transactions $9 B → market cap ≈ $720 B → price ≈ $5,965
Optimistic: NVT 90, daily transactions $12 B → market cap ≈ $1,080 B → price ≈ $8,947
12-month scenario
Conservative: NVT 75, daily transactions $8 B → market cap ≈ $600 T → price ≈ $4,971
Benchmark: NVT 90, daily transactions $10 B → market cap ≈ $900 T → price ≈ $7,456
Optimistic: NVT 100, daily transactions $14 B → market cap ≈ $1,400 T → price ≈ $11,598
This means that the network effect of ETH is supporting a valuation base of $5,000 to $12,000.
05. On-chain cash flow model
Considering the on-chain 'revenue' generated by the Ethereum protocol (transaction fees + MEV, etc.) as cash flow to measure network value. As the Ethereum application ecosystem expands, the growth in network 'revenue' can enhance ETH valuation.
Asset management company VanEck predicts that in 2025, with the introduction of staking rewards and favorable factors like ETFs, the price of ETH is expected to approach $6,000. As early as in their 2023 report, VanEck had made a valuation for the price of ETH, assuming that on-chain fees and usage continue to rise, the model predicts that by 2030, ETH could rise to about $11,800. See the figure below:
06. K-line technical analysis
@CryptoPainter believes that although ETH currently faces some historical selling pressure from the supply zone of the 2021 highs, on the 4-hour technical structure, the highs and lows are still slowly rising, showing no obvious destruction.
From the ASR channel observation, ETH price is oscillating upward above the orange average pressure band, indicating a strong pattern that shows market demand is gradually digesting the supply near historical highs.
The daily ASR channel shows signs of breaking through the average pressure band. The last similar breakout occurred in early 2024, and if this breakout is successful, the daily target may directly reach the daily overbought line (approximately $5,600).
Another possibility is a repetition of the trend at the end of 2024, encountering extreme resistance at the upper edge of the orange channel.
Overall, the current situation remains positive, and there is a possibility that the ETH price could challenge $6,000 in the medium term.
07. Crypto analyst scenario simulations
Some crypto analysts and media L have provided a series of scenario-based predictions for ETH prices:
1. Crypto analyst @VirtualBacon 0x believes that ETH has entered a new macro bull market. Under the baseline scenario, ETH is expected to rise to the range of $6,000 to $7,000 by the end of 2025, with a long-term target of around $10,000 in mid-2026. If extremely optimistic, with the market fully frenzied, and BTC challenging $200,000 while ETH outperforms, Virtual Bacon estimates ETH could potentially reach $16,000.
2. Wall Street analyst Tom Lee stated in a July Bankless podcast that in the short term, ETH should at least rebound to $4,000; and by the end of 2025, it is reasonable for ETH to rise to $7,000, or even reach $12,000 or $15,000.
3. Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes set a target price of about $10,000 for ETH by the end of 2025, which is considered an optimistic bull market scenario. In his July 2025 article, he emphasized that the U.S. policy shift towards credit expansion would bring a large amount of liquidity, coupled with Western institutions regaining interest in Ethereum; these macro factors will be key catalysts for driving ETH's rise.
4. The crypto media Bankless proposed in its 2025 outlook that ETH is expected to challenge the extreme bullish scenario of $15,000. They stated in their annual forecast that new driving forces such as the AI boom could trigger a new wave of crypto market frenzy, and in this optimistic scenario, the price of Ethereum has a chance to rise to the ten-thousand-dollar level. The underlying assumptions include abundant market liquidity, narrative trends (such as AI + Crypto), and the continued strengthening of Ethereum's leading position in the DeFi space.
08. Summary
Based on six valuation methods, there is a high likelihood that ETH will reach the range of $6,000 to $8,000 in 2025. If market sentiment is high and on-chain activity continues to grow, breaking through $10,000 is not impossible; in an extremely optimistic scenario, it may reach the range of $12,000 to $15,000.
This is not just 'market speculation', but a joint interpretation of on-chain data, capital behavior, and macro liquidity. Regardless of whether it eventually reaches $10,000, ETH has already secured its footing as the infrastructure of the crypto ecosystem within multiple value pricing systems.
What do you think about the potential of ETH in this cycle? Feel free to comment and exchange ideas.
Risk warning: The content of this article is for informational reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The price of ETH is influenced by multiple factors such as market sentiment, on-chain activity, and policy changes, making it highly volatile. Please make decisions based on your own risk tolerance and bear the investment risks.
