This article analyzes the possibility of Ethereum (ETH) hitting $10,000 in this bull market through six different valuation models, providing a comprehensive assessment of its future price trends. The article is based on a piece by biteyecn, organized, translated, and written by BlockBeats. (Background: Bitcoin surged to $124,500, setting a new historical high! Ethereum approaches $4,800) (Background information: The cryptocurrency market capitalization surged to $4.18 trillion, setting a new historical high! Bitcoin accounts for 57%, while Ethereum takes 13%) Ethereum ETH has rebounded from the low in April and is currently standing at the $4,500 mark. If 2024 is the beginning of the bull market ignited by the Bitcoin ETF, then 2025 may likely be the year for Ethereum to shine. This article uses six valuation methods to analyze whether ETH can hit the $10,000 threshold! 1/8 ETH/BTC Ratio Firstly, we compare the relative valuation of ETH and BTC. The ETH/BTC ratio is actually very stable in the long term, but the current ratio is only 0.0372, which is at a historical lower position over the past five years, indicating that ETH may currently be 'undervalued.' Based on the average ETH/BTC ratio of 0.0518 over the past five years, assuming BTC remains around $120,000, the corresponding ETH price would be $6,214. If we refer to the ETH/BTC ratio of the last bull market (0.06-0.08), and still assume BTC remains around $120,000, then the corresponding ETH price would be $7,200-$9,600. 2/8 Ethereum ETF and Institutional Holdings With the surge in ETH prices, substantial off-market funds are flooding into Ethereum ETFs. Many people overlook the actual impact of Ethereum ETFs and institutional purchases, which is not only sentimentally positive but also represents a significant buying force. According to data from @SoSoValueCrypto, Ethereum spot ETFs have set a new historical high, with a net inflow of $1.019 billion on August 11, Eastern Time, and the current total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $25.712 billion, with a holding of about 6 million ETH, accounting for 4.96% of the current circulating supply of ETH, compared to BTC's ETF percentage of 6.48%, indicating room for growth. In addition, 70 Ethereum reserve entities currently hold about 3.49 million ETH, accounting for 2.89% of the circulating supply of ETH. BMNR has publicly stated that its goal is to ultimately hold 5% of the global circulating supply of Ethereum. After deducting the staked locked-up 36.17 million ETH, only about 7.51 million ETH remains in free circulation. The subsequent price projections are based on a simple assumption: the proportion of the free circulating supply will increase the price of each ETH proportionally. That is, New Price = Current Price × (Target Free Circulating Supply / Current Free Circulating Supply). If we package ETFs and institutional reserves as a whole, they currently hold 7.85% of the total supply. Assuming this proportion increases to 10% in the future, and the staking locked-up ratio remains relatively stable, the free circulating supply will shrink to about 7.252 million ETH, corresponding to a price adjustment to about $4,647; if it increases to 15%, it rises to about $5,070; if it increases to 20%, it approaches $6,000. This does not yet consider the magnifying effects on the demand side, so the real increase may be even higher. Additionally, the incremental funds from ETFs and institutions usually take some time to settle, meaning that the price of ETH will be raised in a long-term and stable manner, rather than a short-term spike. 3/8 Metcalfe's Law Many people focus on price fluctuations and hot narratives when discussing ETH valuation, but overlook the long-term support provided by on-chain activity for network value. Metcalfe's Law states that the value of a network is proportional to the square of its active user count. Applied to Ethereum, this means Network Value ≈ k × (Daily Active Addresses)². Simply put, the more users there are, the more valuable the network becomes, and a squared growth in user count results in exponential growth in market value. According to BitInfoCharts data, on August 13, 2025, Ethereum's mainnet had approximately 971,486 daily active addresses (DAA) in the past 24 hours, with ETH priced at about $4,500, and a total circulating supply of about 120.7 million ETH, resulting in a market capitalization of about $543.1 billion. Plugging into the formula gives the current coefficient k ≈ 0.576 (USD/address²). With this k, we can estimate prices under different activity scenarios: If DAA increases to 1 million, the price would be about $4,768 (+6%). If DAA increases to 1.1 million, the price would be about $5,769 (+28.2%). If it optimistically rises to 1.3 million (close to 90% of the historical high), the price would be about $8,058 (+79.1%). This estimation assumes that the staking amount and circulating supply remain relatively stable, and that the increase in activity will directly amplify network value, thereby driving up the price of each ETH. Unlike ETFs and institutional purchases, the Metcalfe method reflects the endogenous growth of on-chain usage and economic activity; it does not rely on external capital inflow but is based on the compounding accumulation of network effects. Note that once activity resonates with the financial aspect—on-chain transactions increase, fees rise, and burning rates recover—combined with the ETF and institutional capital contraction effects, ETH's price will be supported by both supply contraction and network expansion, leading to a potential acceleration far exceeding predictions based on a single factor. 4/8 NVT Model NVT essentially acts like a 'crypto version of PE.' Given a reasonable NVT multiple (based on historical ranges) and future daily transaction amounts, we can backtrack the market capitalization and price. NVT = Market Cap (USD) / Daily On-chain Transaction Amount (USD). The current NVT can be calculated as NVT = 518B / 14B = 37. Historically, ETH's NVT has generally been in the range of 60–110, and it is currently in a relatively lower historical position. Assuming the NVT multiple remains in a reasonable range of 60/80/90/100/110 within the next 6-12 months, and considering future on-chain transaction amounts (USD) fluctuate between $7B–$14B/day. 6-month scenarios: · Conservative: NVT 70, daily transactions $7B → Market Cap ≈ $490B → Price ≈ $4,059 · Benchmark: NVT 80, daily transactions $9B → Market Cap ≈ $720B → Price ≈ $5,965 · Optimistic: NVT 90, daily transactions $12B → Market Cap ≈ $1.08 trillion → Price ≈ $8,947 12-month scenarios: · Conservative: NVT 75, daily transactions $8B → Market Cap ≈ $600 billion → Price ≈ $4,971 · Benchmark: NVT 90, daily transactions $10B → Market Cap ≈ $900 billion → Price ≈ $7,456 · Optimistic: NVT 100, daily transactions $14B → Market Cap ≈ $1.4 trillion → Price ≈ $11,598.

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