Family, today Hao is going to talk to everyone about the ETH market. First, let's look at the bullish side. The open interest in the derivatives market increased by 13.83%, reaching $64.36 billion, with a long-short ratio of 3.11, indicating a strong bullish sentiment from institutions. BlackRock's spot ETF has accumulated over 124,000 ETH in just one day, roughly $590 million, providing support for the price.

However, we must also pay attention to the risks. In the 4-hour chart, the RSI has reached 78, indicating overbought conditions, and the trading volume did not keep up with the price increase, showing a divergence between price and volume. If it cannot hold above 4620, it may drop to 4500. Furthermore, there are over $420 million in long margin below 4500, and a breakout could trigger a chain liquidation.

There are also some troublesome issues. Jump Trading has sold 3.8 million LDO, and it is suspected that HashKey Capital transferred 7,300 ETH to the exchange, increasing short-term supply. The SEC is still investigating staking agreements, and there have been past regulatory news that caused ETH to drop 8% in one day, so we need to keep an eye on this.

Overall, ETH is leaning bullish in the short term, but the overbought signal indicates a risk of correction. The key range is between 4386-4620; if it holds, it can still rise, but if it fails to hold, it could be precarious. Everyone should pay attention to the Federal Reserve's speech on August 14 at 20:00, as well as the ETH staking policy. In terms of operations, don't exceed an 8% position and set stop losses at 3%-5%.

Hao's trading suggestion: it may pull back to 4760-4780; you can short around this area, first targeting 4710, then 4685, and if it drops deeply, it could reach 4590. There are many market uncertainties, so everyone should be cautious and consider their own situation.