The 'counterintuitive' script of main players selling: the logic of chip transfer behind ETH's rise.
Many investors are confused: why does ETH rise against the tide amidst the 'main players selling' narrative, even producing large bullish candles? In fact, this is a classic operation of main players selling — a significant drop often marks the end of selling, while rising is the main stage for selling. Just as a market won't immediately display 'clearance sale', main players never start with a sharp drop; rather, they quietly complete chip transfers through price fluctuations.
1. Support level: not a 'market bottom', but the main players' 'cost defense line'.
What you think is an 'unbreakable support level' (like ETH's $2200, $2000) is essentially the 'minimum selling price red line' drawn by the main players.
The truth about support levels: the rebound of ETH after touching $2200 three times in 2023 is not a market spontaneously forming a bottom but rather indicates that main players still have a lot of chips to sell — below this price, profits will be compressed, or even cannot cover the previous rising costs. Therefore, main players will temporarily invest money to support the price and continue selling. Distinguishing between breaking signals: false break (trap): during the mid-term selling, main players may deliberately let prices briefly fall below support (e.g., from $2200 to $2180), scaring retail investors into panic selling, then quickly pulling it back. At this time, looking at the 4-hour chart, trading volume will shrink (indicating that main players haven't truly left), with the goal of 'picking up retail investors' chips at low prices and then selling them back at high prices'. True break (end): if the support level is steadily broken (three consecutive 4-hour candles closing below), and trading volume increases by more than 30%, it indicates that main players have sold more than 90% of their chips. The remaining decline is like the final day of a store clearance sale, where main players have already pocketed profits, and the remaining 'residual stock' is sold off casually. 2. The 'three-stage routine' of main players selling: selling during rises, selling during consolidations, selling during declines. Main players never rely on sharp drops for selling but rather target retail investors' psychology in three steps to 'set the trap' and transfer chips to retail investors: Step 1: Selling while rising (using bullish candles to trick you into buying). Main players spend 5%-10% of their funds to raise prices, creating the illusion that 'the main upward wave is coming'. For example, when ETH rises from $2800 to $3200 in 2024, the main players use the rhythm of 'rising - consolidating - rising again', increasing trading volume with each rise (retail investors rush in upon seeing the rise), and shrinking trading volume during pullbacks (making retail investors think 'main players are locking in, and it will rise further'). However, in reality, at each peak, main players quietly sell off 3%-5% of their chips — the more bullish candles, the more willing retail investors are to buy, and the smoother the main players' selling goes. Step 2: Continuing to sell during consolidation (secretly transferring chips amidst fluctuations). Prices oscillate at high levels (for example, $3200-$3400), appearing to 'build momentum for a breakout', but in fact, main players are continuously selling during fluctuations. At this time, K-line frequently shows upper and lower shadows: when rising to the upper limit ($3400), main players dump their shares; when dropping to the lower limit ($3200), they use small amounts of money to pull it back, making retail investors feel 'the support is effective, hurry to bottom fish'. Data shows that when ETH consolidates above $3000 for over 15 days, main players have sold off more than 60% on average. Step 3: Selling while falling (using 'bottom-fishing psychology' to clear residual stock). When less than 20% of chips remain, main players start to sell off slightly during price declines. Retail investors often think 'pullbacks are opportunities', especially when prices drop to previous support levels (like $3000), at which point buying funds flood in, perfectly catching the last chips from main players. The drop during this stage is usually controlled at 10%-15% — not enough to trigger panic selling, yet able to attract retail investors looking for bargains. Only after main players finish selling will a cliff-like drop occur, while retail investors are already deeply trapped.
Focus on these three key signals:
Observe whether the trading volume diverges from the price: when prices rise, trading volume increases but the rate of increase slows (for example, rising 1% with 150% of the 30-day average trading volume), indicating that main players are secretly selling at high levels; during consolidation, trading volume fluctuates (large bullish candles with increased volume, bearish candles with decreased volume), which is a typical trick of main players pretending to be active to attract buyers. Look at the changes in chip concentration.
Check on-chain data: if the number of addresses holding 100,000 - 1,000,000 ETH continues to decrease while the number of addresses holding less than 10,000 ETH increases, it indicates that main players are transferring chips to retail investors. This signal at the ETH peak in 2021 indicated the end of selling three weeks in advance. Observe the cash flow to see if it is 'more out than in'.
When main players sell, funds often flow in 'impulsively and then continuously out' — after a large influx of funds on one day, there are continuous small outflows for the next 3-5 days, with the total outflow far exceeding the inflow. This 'hype then sell' model is common in monitoring ETH's main funds. Conclusion: Don't be led by price fluctuations; understand the 'small movements' of funds. Every rise and consolidation of ETH is a psychological game between main players and retail investors. Seeing a bullish candle and shouting 'the market is coming', then fearing 'the main players have run away' when seeing a bearish candle, is actually falling into a 'price trap'.
The real breakthrough method is to look at the essence through price: be wary of 'selling signals within bullish candles' when rising, pay attention to 'chip transfer during consolidation' when sideways, and differentiate 'washout or clearing out residual stock' when falling. Only by understanding the main players' script can you protect your capital during fluctuations and avoid being the last one to catch the falling knife.