Original Title: (Can Ethereum Reach $10,000 in This Round? 6 Valuation Methods Calculation)
Original Source: Biteye
ETH has rebounded from the low in April and is currently at the $4,500 mark.
If 2024 is the beginning of the bull market ignited by Bitcoin ETF, then 2025 may very well be Ethereum's turn.
This article uses 6 valuation methods to analyze whether ETH can hit the $10,000 mark!
1/8 ETH/BTC Ratio
First, we compare the relative valuation of ETH and BTC.
In the long run, the ETH/BTC ratio is actually very stable, but the current ratio is only 0.0372, which is at a lower historical position over the past 5 years, so ETH is currently 'undervalued.'
Based on the average ETH/BTC ratio of 0.0518 over the past five years, assuming BTC stays around $120,000, the corresponding ETH price is $6,214.
If we reference the previous bull market ETH/BTC ratio of 0.06-0.08, still assuming BTC stays around $120,000, then the corresponding ETH price would be $7,200–$9,600.
2/8 Ethereum ETF and Institutional Holdings
Accompanied by a surge in ETH prices, significant off-market funds are flooding into Ethereum ETFs. Many people overlook the actual impact of Ethereum ETFs and institutional purchases, which not only boost sentiment but also represent massive buying pressure.
According to @SoSoValueCrypto data, Ethereum spot ETFs have set a new historical high, with net inflows of $1.019 billion as of August 11 (Eastern Time), and the current total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $25.712 billion, with holdings reaching about 6 million ETH, accounting for 4.96% of the current ETH circulating supply.
Compared to BTC's ETF percentage of 6.48%, there is still room for growth. In addition, 70 Ethereum reserve entities currently hold about 3.49 million ETH, accounting for 2.89% of ETH's circulating supply. BMNR has publicly stated its goal is to eventually hold 5% of the global circulating supply of Ethereum. After deducting the staked and locked-up 36.17 million, the circulating supply is only about 7.51 million.
The upcoming price calculation is based on a simple assumption: the ratio of circulating supply reduction will proportionally increase the price of each unit.
In other words, new price = current price × (target circulating supply / current circulating supply)
If we look at ETF and institutional reserves as a whole, they currently hold 7.85% of the total supply. Assuming this percentage increases to 10% in the future, and the staking lock-up ratio remains stable, the circulating supply will shrink to about 7.52 million, mechanically pushing the price up to about $4,647; if it rises to 15%, then it would push the price to about $5,070; and if it rises to 20%, it would be close to $6,000.
This does not take into account the amplification effect from the demand side, and the actual increase may be higher. Additionally, the incremental funds from ETFs and institutions usually take some time to settle, meaning that the price center of ETH will be raised in a long-term and stable manner, rather than a short-term spike.
3/8 Metcalfe's Law
Many people discuss ETH valuation by focusing on price fluctuations and hot narratives, but overlook the long-term support of on-chain activity for network value. Metcalfe's Law states that the value of a network is proportional to the square of its active user count; applied to Ethereum, it means network value ≈ k × (daily active address count)².
Simply put, 'the more users, the more valuable the network'; a square growth in user count can lead to exponential growth in market cap.
According to BitInfoCharts data, on August 13, 2025, the number of daily active addresses (DAA) on the Ethereum mainnet was about 971,486, with the current ETH price around $4,500, total circulation of about 120.7 million, and a market cap of about $543.1 billion. Plugging into the formula gives the current coefficient k ≈ 0.576 (USD/address²).
With this k, prices can be calculated under different activity scenarios:
If DAA increases to 1 million, the price would be about $4,768 (+6%)
If DAA increases to 1.1 million, the price would be about $5,769 (+28.2%)
If it optimistically reaches 1.3 million (close to 90% of the historical high), the price would be about $8,058 (+79.1%)
This calculation assumes that the staking volume and circulating supply remain relatively stable, and that the increase in activity will directly amplify network value, thereby driving up the price of each ETH. Unlike ETF and institutional buying, the Metcalfe method reflects endogenous growth of on-chain usage and economic activity; it does not rely on external fund inflows but is based on the compound growth of network effects.
Note that once activity and funding resonate—on-chain transactions increase, fees rise, and burning volume rebounds, combined with the ETF and institutional chip contraction effects, ETH's price will be driven by both supply contraction and network expansion, potentially accelerating faster than predictions based on a single factor.
4/8 NVT Model
NVT essentially acts like a 'crypto version of PE'; given a reasonable NVT multiple (based on historical ranges) and future daily transfer amounts, one can reverse-engineer market cap and price.
NVT = Market Cap (USD) / Daily On-Chain Transfer Amount (USD), calculated as current NVT = 518B/14B = 37
Historically, ETH's NVT has been roughly in the range of 60–110, and currently, it is at a lower historical position. Assuming the NVT multiple stays within a reasonable range of 60/80/90/100/110 over the next 6–12 months; on-chain transfer amounts (USD) will consider volatility with a future range of $7B–$14B per day.
6-Month Scenario
· Conservative: NVT 70, Daily Transfer $7B → Market Cap ≈ $490B → Price ≈ $4,059
· Benchmark: NVT 80, Daily Transfer $9B → Market Cap ≈ $720B → Price ≈ $5,965
· Optimistic: NVT 90, Daily Transfer $12B → Market Cap ≈ $1080B → Price ≈ $8,947
12-Month Scenario
· Conservative: NVT 75, Daily Transfer $8B → Market Cap ≈ $600T → Price ≈ $4,971
· Benchmark: NVT 90, Daily Transfer $10B → Market Cap ≈ $900T → Price ≈ $7,456
· Optimistic: NVT 100, Daily Transfer $14B → Market Cap ≈ $1400T → Price ≈ $11,598
In other words, the network effect of ETH is supporting a valuation floor of $5,000–$12,000.
5/8 On-Chain Cash Flow Model
Consider the on-chain 'revenue' generated by the Ethereum protocol (transaction fees + MEV, etc.) as cash flow to assess network value. As the Ethereum application ecosystem expands, the growth in network 'revenue' can enhance ETH valuation.
Asset management company VanEck predicts that with the introduction of ETH staking rewards through ETFs and other favorable factors, ETH prices are expected to approach $6,000 by 2025. As early as in the 2023 report, VanEck made a valuation on ETH prices, assuming that on-chain fees and usage continue to rise, the model suggests ETH could reach around $11,800 by 2030. See the figure below:
6/8 K-line Technical Analysis
@CryptoPainter_X believes that although ETH currently faces some historical selling pressure from the supply area of the 2021 high, the technical structure at the 4-hour level still shows higher lows and has not shown any significant damage.
From the ASR channel observation, ETH price is oscillating upward above the orange average pressure zone, indicating a strong pattern, suggesting that market demand is gradually digesting the supply near historical highs.
The daily ASR channel shows signs of breaking through the average pressure zone. The last similar breakout occurred at the beginning of 2024; if this breakout is successful, the daily target may directly reach the daily overbought line (around $5,600).
Another possibility is a repeat of the trend at the end of 2024, where the upper edge of the orange channel faces extreme resistance.
Overall, the current situation remains positive, and there is a possibility that ETH prices could challenge $6,000 in the medium term.
7/8 Crypto Analyst Scenario Simulation
Some crypto analysts and media L provided a series of scenario-based predictions for ETH prices:
1. Crypto analyst @VirtualBacon0x believes that ETH has entered a new macro bull market. In the baseline scenario, ETH is expected to rise to the $6,000–$7,000 range by the end of 2025, with a long-term target of about $10,000 by mid-2026. In an extremely optimistic scenario, if the market becomes wildly enthusiastic, BTC hits $200,000, and ETH outperforms, Virtual Bacon estimates that ETH could potentially reach as high as $16,000.
2. Wall Street analyst Tom Lee stated in the Bankless podcast in July that in the short term, ETH should at least rebound to $4,000; and before the end of 2025, it is reasonable for ETH to rise to $7,000, or even reach $12,000 or $15,000.
3. Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes gives a target price of about $10,000 for ETH by the end of 2025, which is an optimistic bull market scenario. In his July 2025 article, he emphasized that a shift in U.S. policy towards credit expansion will bring a large amount of liquidity, combined with renewed interest from Western institutions in Ethereum, these macro factors will be key catalysts for driving ETH prices up.
4. Crypto media Bankless proposed a bullish scenario in their 2025 outlook where ETH is expected to challenge $15,000. In their annual forecast, they stated that new drivers like the AI boom could trigger a new wave of crypto market frenzy, in which case Ethereum's price could have the opportunity to rise to the $10,000 level. The underlying assumptions include ample market liquidity, narrative trends (such as AI + Crypto), and the continued consolidation of Ethereum's dominant position in the DeFi space.
8/8 Summary by the Editor
Based on seven valuation methods, there is a high likelihood that ETH will reach the range of $6,000–$8,000 by 2025. If market sentiment is high and on-chain activity continues to grow, breaking through $10,000 is not impossible; in an extremely optimistic scenario, it could touch the $12,000–$15,000 range.
This is not just about 'market speculation', but rather a joint interpretation of on-chain data, funding behavior, and macro liquidity. Regardless of whether it ultimately reaches $10,000, ETH, as the infrastructure of the crypto ecosystem, has already established a foothold in multiple value pricing systems.
Risk Warning: The content of this article is for informational reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. ETH prices are influenced by multiple factors such as market sentiment, on-chain activity, policy changes, etc., and are highly volatile. Please make decisions based on your own risk tolerance and bear investment risks.
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