ETH/USDT —

Is Price Overstretched? My 5-Day Cone Read 📈⚠️

As of 13 Aug 2025, 19:58
UTC

Spot: 4,730.39

Trend: UP (EMA50 2,816.42 > EMA200 2,726.94)

Volatility (ATR14): 6.73% → High

Drift (90D LR): Slightly negative (−0.0835/day)

Why I’m cautious right now

ETH is ~+68% above its
EMA50 — that’s a big stretch for mean-reversion setups.

On my +5-day projection
cone (ATR×√t bands), price sits mid-cone:

Mid/Upper/Lower: 4,729.97
/ 5,798.36 / 3,661.59

Location ≈ 50% from the
lower edge → not an ideal dip zone.

Model action: SELL /
take-profit bias due to overextension vs EMA50 (even with an uptrend).

What this could mean for
short-term PnL (on a 100 USDT test position)

1D: base ≈ −$0.00, bull ≈ +$10.10,
bear ≈ −$10.10

7D: base ≈ −$0.01, bull ≈ +$26.71,
bear ≈ −$26.74

30D: base ≈ −$0.05, bull ≈
+$55.27, bear ≈ −$55.38

60D: base ≈ −$0.11, bull ≈
+$78.13, bear ≈ −$78.34

My playbook (non-financial
advice)

Prefer buying dips when
price is in the lower ~35% of the 5D cone and trend stays bullish.

If already long, consider partial
scale-outs into the upper cone or use ATR-based trailing.

Volatility is High → size
with care; avoid chasing green candles far above EMA50.

Method: 50/200 EMAs for
regime, 90-bar linear regression for drift, ATR(14) with √t scaling for cone
bands.

#eth #Binance $ETH

Not financial advice.
Do your own research.